DComeaux wrote:We can only hope for an early, extended deep freeze to the north.
DComeaux wrote:Louisiana went from this harvest estimate in 1999-2000 (2,055,300±13%) to this in 2018-19 (505,800±32%). Imagine in the field sightings using those harvest numbers.
DComeaux wrote:Here's the harvest estimates by year for Louisiana.
1999 - 2,149,500
2000 - 2,055,300
2001- 1,267,300
2002 - 834,100
2003 - 1,344,300
2004 - 822,000 Somewhere in this time span is when I dropped my lease of 15+ years in the Marsh on the Vermilion bay. That place has never recovered
2005 - 877,000
2006 - 1,332,200
2007 - 1,532,800
2008 - 1,750,500 In these years, roughly, I was involved with deer hunting at my company owners camp in Mississippi. I would get upset when I heard the geese fly over in the fall while on stand or working in a food plot. My heart had never left the duck blind.
2009 - 1,848,400
2010 - 2,736,300
2011 - 2,818,800 Picked up a rice blind and did okay for the first year and it fell off drastically for the following years.
2012 - 2,762,700
2013 - 2,390,500
2014 - 1,861,400
2015 - 846,300
2016 - 857,000 ...and this is where we are today.
2017 - 1,083,900
2018 - 505,800
From roughly 2006 to 2013 you can probably find many threads on hunting sites that were on the subject of the accuracy of the harvest numbers. There's just not enough birds making it here to fill all of the gar holes.
DComeaux wrote:There's just not enough birds making it here to fill all of the gar holes.
Darren wrote:DComeaux wrote:Here's the harvest estimates by year for Louisiana.
1999 - 2,149,500
2000 - 2,055,300
2001- 1,267,300
2002 - 834,100
2003 - 1,344,300
2004 - 822,000 Somewhere in this time span is when I dropped my lease of 15+ years in the Marsh on the Vermilion bay. That place has never recovered
2005 - 877,000
2006 - 1,332,200
2007 - 1,532,800
2008 - 1,750,500 In these years, roughly, I was involved with deer hunting at my company owners camp in Mississippi. I would get upset when I heard the geese fly over in the fall while on stand or working in a food plot. My heart had never left the duck blind.
2009 - 1,848,400
2010 - 2,736,300
2011 - 2,818,800 Picked up a rice blind and did okay for the first year and it fell off drastically for the following years.
2012 - 2,762,700
2013 - 2,390,500
2014 - 1,861,400
2015 - 846,300
2016 - 857,000 ...and this is where we are today.
2017 - 1,083,900
2018 - 505,800
From roughly 2006 to 2013 you can probably find many threads on hunting sites that were on the subject of the accuracy of the harvest numbers. There's just not enough birds making it here to fill all of the gar holes.
Mr Goins to Larry R. at meeting last year "In 1998 XYZ law was changed and the hunting in Louisiana has steadily declined since"
Huh?? Look at 2010 to 2013 alone, geez.
Dave I think pressure is creating gar holes where birds previously enjoyed going. We may be down total hunters, but those with the means to get out there are now better equipped to go "scouting" i.e. running around in mud boat way up in the boonies where birds were previously safe and comfy for the season. Case in point, what's this year's latest and greatest offering on the surface drive market? How many horses are we putting back there now? It's an arms race......because it's so profitable to do so. Until it isn't........
DComeaux wrote:Louisiana went from this harvest estimate in 1999-2000 (2,055,300±13%) to this in 2018-19 (505,800±32%). Imagine in the field sightings using those harvest numbers.
It was a terrible breeding year and a terrible migration year. You all got hit with the double whammy. It doesn't seem surprising that you all will have greater year over year swings since it would seem being at the end of the line for most ducks, many of which only go that far if forced to by weather will be more sensitive to further north where ducks may be late, but most will still get there at some point. At the end, they really may never get there in a bad migration year. However, in rough years for us up here, most ducks have run out of room to go south since they are not going to cross the Gulf like some species (or go around, don't know how they get that far south). So then you have a banner year. Good breeding and good migration and you get 2M. Bad breeding and bad migration and you get 0.5M at current population levels. That seems to be where you are at. A factor of 4 variation from the best of the best to the worst of the worst with a typical year being around 1M with more typical variations of a few hundred thousand either direction.Darren wrote:Stats or not, Im calling it an anomaly given the weather until proven otherwise over the course of a few seasons (or more than a few really).
SpinnerMan wrote:DComeaux wrote:Louisiana went from this harvest estimate in 1999-2000 (2,055,300±13%) to this in 2018-19 (505,800±32%). Imagine in the field sightings using those harvest numbers.
You can't pick the peak and the valley and use that for your trend.
Why not pick 2002 where Louisiana harvested 834,000 ducks and 2018 where you all harvested 1,084,000 ducks? Looks like things are going up and up and up
Why is 1999 more representative than 2002?
Cherry picking the data doesn't make your case for you.
Year to year there are HUGE variations driven by weather. Both weather on the breeding grounds and weather during the migration. Picking the high and the low is no more telling than picking the low and the high. It just tells what you want to see and not what actually is.
Rick wrote:DComeaux wrote:There's just not enough birds making it here to fill all of the gar holes.
Only been here since '83, but there's never been a shortage of near birdless gar holes during my time in Louisiana. But Darren's right, pressure (and changing land use) has made a blue slew of new ones.
SpinnerMan wrote:I didn't see your annual harvest and had just pulled a few data points from the web. So I was very low on the average and your variation. The average is 1.5M and the variation is around 0.7M. With best of the best higher than I thought. Over 1/3rd of the years have a more than a 0.5M swing up or down from the previous year. It's just a highly variable system. There is probably correlation from year to year, but for such a small sample size, that could just be more coincidence than trend.
Two sources of correlation. One is good/bad breeding years effecting the next few years. The other is the confidence of the hunters. As success goes up, more hunters put in more effort and as a result kill more birds. Just like people chase the stock market. When they hear others did good, they get in. When they hear others did poorly, they get out. Last year was nonstop bitching about a bad year so how many hunters were discouraged from going out? And this was on top of a few bad years. If this year you all get back up around 1M, it will bring out more hunters, so you can expect a trend like you see from 2004. Then again, another bad weather year and you stick around the floor until people get convinced the tide has turned.
How people respond to highly variable systems is always very interesting. Many are 100% sure they see the pattern in the chaos. Las Vegas is built on these people. It's hard to sort out real trends from random ones and ones we just are inclined by our personality to see. The old glass half full versus half empty views of things.
I just wish my glass was as full as you all's glass is in the worst year.
Darren wrote:DC maybe one other hot item to kick around as we count down to this weekend is from a tidbit that was mentioned in that video trailer you posted........this concept of specks rebounding off the gulf.
Are we pressuring them back northward? Arky is shooting them too, so why would they go back there? Is it just a game of ping pong with specks going back and forth?
PS What yall cookin?
Darren wrote:Your mind appears to work like mine on crunching numbers, maybe an engineer?
SpinnerMan wrote:Darren wrote:Your mind appears to work like mine on crunching numbers, maybe an engineer?
Definitely an engineer.
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