Ducaholic wrote:I'm concerned about the general population decline (lack of reproduction) and the declining harvest in Miss. Flyway as a whole. Ducks are not coming to La. as they once did that's factual as our own counts bare that out over time but it also appears that waterfowl also may be shifting west as well as whole.
The estimate of 3.20 million ducks from this survey is very similar to November’s estimate of 3.13
million, 64% higher than last December’s estimate of 1.95 million, 45% higher than the most recent 5-
year average of 2.2 million and 28% higher than the long-term average of 2.5 million. It is the highest
December survey estimate since 1999, when over 4 million ducks were estimated on the same surveyed
areas
The 2.64 million ducks estimated on this survey is over twice the November survey total of 1.21
million, is 18% lower than last December’s total of 3.20 million, and is slightly higher than the most
recent 5-year (2.40 million) and long-term (2.55 million) averages.
The 3.61 million ducks estimated on this survey is up 18% from the November survey total of 3.06
million, 37% higher than last December’s estimate of 2.64 million, and is 29% higher than the long-
term December average of 2.79 million. It is the highest December estimate since 1999 when nearly 5
million ducks were estimated from this survey
The estimate of 3.02 million ducks on this survey is twice November’s estimate of 1.55 million, 16%
below last December’s estimate of 3.61 million, but 6% higher than the long-term December average of
2.83 million.
Darren wrote:Ducaholic wrote:I'm concerned about the general population decline (lack of reproduction) and the declining harvest in Miss. Flyway as a whole. Ducks are not coming to La. as they once did that's factual as our own counts bare that out over time but it also appears that waterfowl also may be shifting west as well as whole.
Taking away 2018, recent stats say otherwise. Mallards? Sure. But not ducks overall.
From December 2014 count from LDWF:The estimate of 3.20 million ducks from this survey is very similar to November’s estimate of 3.13
million, 64% higher than last December’s estimate of 1.95 million, 45% higher than the most recent 5-
year average of 2.2 million and 28% higher than the long-term average of 2.5 million. It is the highest
December survey estimate since 1999, when over 4 million ducks were estimated on the same surveyed
areas
From December 2015 count from LDWF:The 2.64 million ducks estimated on this survey is over twice the November survey total of 1.21
million, is 18% lower than last December’s total of 3.20 million, and is slightly higher than the most
recent 5-year (2.40 million) and long-term (2.55 million) averages.
From December 2016 count from LDWF:The 3.61 million ducks estimated on this survey is up 18% from the November survey total of 3.06
million, 37% higher than last December’s estimate of 2.64 million, and is 29% higher than the long-
term December average of 2.79 million. It is the highest December estimate since 1999 when nearly 5
million ducks were estimated from this survey
From December 2017 count from LDWF:The estimate of 3.02 million ducks on this survey is twice November’s estimate of 1.55 million, 16%
below last December’s estimate of 3.61 million, but 6% higher than the long-term December average of
2.83 million.
Ericdc wrote:Darren, we can’t account for what we weren’t here for, and I believe perry when he says we don’t have the numbers we used to winter. I try to be optimistic and hunt the best days.
I also believe our habitat changes are a factor also. It’s obvious some areas and habitat types have declined.
The marsh is declining, the ag fields are tilled under, and the oxbows are full of invasives. We don’t offer what we used to.
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Ducaholic wrote:Specialized habitat increases to our north have also taken it's toll over time. Anyone that says any different just wants to believe otherwise or refuses to believe that the efforts that they support are actually working against them. It's a multi-faceted dilemma that can only be corrected by another dry spell on the PPR. It's at that time that we will see just what we saw in the 80's. Hunter numbers will plummet, all the well intended conservationist pumps will sit idle, and the pendulum will swing once again when water returns to the PPR. Just my .02.
Darren wrote:Ducaholic wrote:Specialized habitat increases to our north have also taken it's toll over time. Anyone that says any different just wants to believe otherwise or refuses to believe that the efforts that they support are actually working against them. It's a multi-faceted dilemma that can only be corrected by another dry spell on the PPR. It's at that time that we will see just what we saw in the 80's. Hunter numbers will plummet, all the well intended conservationist pumps will sit idle, and the pendulum will swing once again when water returns to the PPR. Just my .02.
I agree with all of this, 100%, and have stated as much on here before and in other outlets. Waterfowl hunting is big business, and the "haves" of the upper end of the flyway are carving out their moist soil unit paradises when they never did before. It's not the corn issue that Flyway Fed would try to sell you on, it's just those that can, doing so with the means they have, entirely within the means of the law. I don't think it's holding the birds indefinitely, but I do think it absolutely slows the migration train down.
Ducaholic wrote: but I won't discount their efforts or the impact that flooded unharvested crops are having on the migration as a whole and certainly on mallards. Imprinting is real.
Ducaholic wrote:Shoot em is all I can say...
“This year’s pond count and nesting conditions are truly a tale of two countries,” Rohwer said. “Canada is in bad shape — it started dry and got even drier. I haven’t seen portions of Canada this dry since the mid-1980s. However, the prairies in the Dakotas started wet and stayed ridiculously wet. The problem is that while many of the duck estimates in the U.S. are up, it wasn’t enough to compensate for dry conditions in a region as massive and important to ducks as prairie Canada.”
However, Rohwer said production in the highly wet eastern Dakotas region — where mallards are up 54 percent, pintails rose 64 percent, bluewings jumped 19 percent and total ducks are up 29 percent — has been exceptional. That’s good news for hunters, who shoot the fall flight, not the breeding population.
“The numbers aren’t as bad as they appear,” Rohwer said. “For example, even though bluewings are down, a higher portion of their breeding population than average settled in the wet Dakotas, where they should produce ducklings like crazy.”
Even though breeding duck numbers are down overall, the U.S. prairies were incredibly wet from south to north, which will lead to strong duck production. Conditions remained wet and actually improved during the breeding season, with temporary and seasonal wetlands retaining water into July and August.
“So when the prairies were dry last year, it hurt duck production, and in turn, duck hunters,” he said. “We saw it in Louisiana and elsewhere. But this year, ducks nested and renested in the U.S. prairies with a vengeance and should have high brood survival in those landscapes.”
Strong production in the U.S. prairies should also increase the number of more easily decoyed juveniles in the fall flight, compared to the savvy, adult birds many hunters encountered last season.
“There will be plenty of ducks in the fall flight, and I expect duck hunters, especially in the southern U.S., to have a better season this year,” Rohwer said.
Ducaholic wrote:https://www.foxnews.com/us/farmers-almanac-winter-snow-cold-frigid-temperatures
Ducaholic wrote:Figured you boys could use a little pumping up today...
Downside is Eric is going to lose about 20 days of hunting this year to ice. Guess I’ll have to host him a time or two.
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