2017 and 2018 USFWS harvest data

[Darren]

Per USFWS report, published this month:
https://www.fws.gov/migratorybirds/pdf/ ... 018-19.pdf

Arkansas 2017-2018

Arky harvests.jpg

Missouri 2017-2018

MO harvests.jpg

Louisiana 2017-2018

La harvests.jpg

Few observations of note here:

In what was widely regarded as at least a "decent" season in 2017 Louisiana killed more than twice the ducks that Missouri did in same season, and in the worst season in recollection for many (2018) Louisiana still killed something like almost 200,000 ducks more than Missouri. But we're going to go north and raise hell claiming they're keeping "our" birds?

The USFWS survey shows harvests 50% down for Louisiana (2017 to 2018), and sure enough my log reflects the same. For our Delacroix lease alone, it was down 50% on the nose in its own right across three blinds, same number of hunts (+ -) 1 hunt.

Interestingly enough though, Arkansas duck harvest was flat, about same harvest in 2017 to 2018.

[Ericdc]

Arkansas had the water and food to hold a bunch, and lack of cold weather that’s as far as the bulk of them made it.


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[Ducaholic]

I'm concerned about the general population decline (lack of reproduction) and the declining harvest in Miss. Flyway as a whole. Ducks are not coming to La. as they once did that's factual as our own counts bare that out over time but it also appears that waterfowl also may be shifting west as well as whole.

[Ericdc]

Pretty recent decline after several high years though.


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[Darren]

I'm concerned about the general population decline (lack of reproduction) and the declining harvest in Miss. Flyway as a whole. Ducks are not coming to La. as they once did that's factual as our own counts bare that out over time but it also appears that waterfowl also may be shifting west as well as whole.

The breeding numbers are merely a product of available habitat; its that simple. We had dry conditions previous two years, and this year the Dakotas rebounded nicely (35% or something increase in ponds) while Canada apparently got drier. We're only a couple of years removed from reported highest breeding numbers of all time as the charts above depict.

As far as coming to Louisiana:


Taking away 2018, recent stats say otherwise. Mallards? Sure. But not ducks overall.

From December 2014 count from LDWF:

The estimate of 3.20 million ducks from this survey is very similar to November’s estimate of 3.13
million, 64% higher than last December’s estimate of 1.95 million, 45% higher than the most recent 5-
year average of 2.2 million and 28% higher than the long-term average of 2.5 million. It is the highest
December survey estimate since 1999, when over 4 million ducks were estimated on the same surveyed
areas

From December 2015 count from LDWF:

The 2.64 million ducks estimated on this survey is over twice the November survey total of 1.21
million, is 18% lower than last December’s total of 3.20 million, and is slightly higher than the most
recent 5-year (2.40 million) and long-term (2.55 million) averages.

From December 2016 count from LDWF:

The 3.61 million ducks estimated on this survey is up 18% from the November survey total of 3.06
million, 37% higher than last December’s estimate of 2.64 million, and is 29% higher than the long-
term December average of 2.79 million. It is the highest December estimate since 1999 when nearly 5
million ducks were estimated from this survey

From December 2017 count from LDWF:

The estimate of 3.02 million ducks on this survey is twice November’s estimate of 1.55 million, 16%
below last December’s estimate of 3.61 million, but 6% higher than the long-term December average of
2.83 million.

[Ducaholic]

My concern remains as stated. For La. to do really well as a whole we need good brood survival rates and colder than normal weather early on in the season. The wet cycle we have been fortunate enough to experience on the PPR for the last 25 years leaves it less productive as time wears on. Couple that with CRP losses and I expect population declines to continue over time until the next dry cycle takes the PPR.

[Ducaholic]

I'm concerned about the general population decline (lack of reproduction) and the declining harvest in Miss. Flyway as a whole. Ducks are not coming to La. as they once did that's factual as our own counts bare that out over time but it also appears that waterfowl also may be shifting west as well as whole.

Taking away 2018, recent stats say otherwise. Mallards? Sure. But not ducks overall.

From December 2014 count from LDWF:

The estimate of 3.20 million ducks from this survey is very similar to November’s estimate of 3.13
million, 64% higher than last December’s estimate of 1.95 million, 45% higher than the most recent 5-
year average of 2.2 million and 28% higher than the long-term average of 2.5 million. It is the highest
December survey estimate since 1999, when over 4 million ducks were estimated on the same surveyed
areas

From December 2015 count from LDWF:

The 2.64 million ducks estimated on this survey is over twice the November survey total of 1.21
million, is 18% lower than last December’s total of 3.20 million, and is slightly higher than the most
recent 5-year (2.40 million) and long-term (2.55 million) averages.

From December 2016 count from LDWF:

The 3.61 million ducks estimated on this survey is up 18% from the November survey total of 3.06
million, 37% higher than last December’s estimate of 2.64 million, and is 29% higher than the long-
term December average of 2.79 million. It is the highest December estimate since 1999 when nearly 5
million ducks were estimated from this survey

From December 2017 count from LDWF:

The estimate of 3.02 million ducks on this survey is twice November’s estimate of 1.55 million, 16%
below last December’s estimate of 3.61 million, but 6% higher than the long-term December average of
2.83 million.

You cherry picked a few years. I did the same thing back in February and their are outliers as you have shown but generally speaking the totals of waterfowl on average have declined over time. Anywhere from 500K to 750K on averageif my memory serves me correctly.

[Darren]

It's not at all "cherry picking" when you just grab the most recent five years. I only designated 2018 as an outlier due to statistically bizarre weather conditions. People like to speak of this alleged trend of less and less birds in Louisiana, and how its just falling off steady, but the numbers recorded say otherwise.

[Ericdc]

http://www.wlf.louisiana.gov/sites/defa ... erages.pdf


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[Ericdc]

Disregard link



This doesn’t account for north Louisiana but it’s all we got.


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[Darren]

Full version

Capture.JPG

Yep, it's just all falling off to nothing.......not really, not just yet.

[Ducaholic]

I did a little research of my own and came away with these numbers using the aerial surveys conducted by LDWF 2004-2018

November Averaged 650K or 30% Below LTA
December Averaged 575K or 20% Below LTA
January Averaged 775K or 25% Below LTA

In 2014 we averaged 700K Above LTA for the months of Nov. Dec. Jan.... 2014 is the only year that all three survey months were above LTA.

There were single months Nov. 2016 1M Above LTA Dec. 2016 800K Above LTA Followed by January 1M Below LTA which was very odd to see that large of a decrease over the course of one month. Text in the report attributed this to a significant warm up in January.

The only other month above LTA was Dec. 2017 100K Above LTA

In summary ducks have not been coming to La. in numbers comparable to LTA for quite sometime. There were great fluctuations year to year and even month to month indicating that weather is still the driver that it always has been. It's also clear that ducks habitat needs are being met to our north as evidenced by average numbers below LTA.

[Ericdc]

Darren, we can’t account for what we weren’t here for, and I believe perry when he says we don’t have the numbers we used to winter. I try to be optimistic and hunt the best days.

I also believe our habitat changes are a factor also. It’s obvious some areas and habitat types have declined.

The marsh is declining, the ag fields are tilled under, and the oxbows are full of invasives. We don’t offer what we used to.




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[Darren]

Darren, we can’t account for what we weren’t here for, and I believe perry when he says we don’t have the numbers we used to winter. I try to be optimistic and hunt the best days.

I also believe our habitat changes are a factor also. It’s obvious some areas and habitat types have declined.

The marsh is declining, the ag fields are tilled under, and the oxbows are full of invasives. We don’t offer what we used to.

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All of the above is certainly true, PLUS pressure on top of it all. However all I'm pointing out is that it's not the cliff drop off some make it out to be, as shown with the mentions of some months being even above LTA's. The bigger picture may be an overall general decline; but the slope isn't remotely as steep as some make it out to be.

[Ducaholic]

Specialized habitat increases to our north have also taken it's toll over time. Anyone that says any different just wants to believe otherwise or refuses to believe that the efforts that they support are actually working against them. It's a multi-faceted dilemma that can only be corrected by another dry spell on the PPR. It's at that time that we will see just what we saw in the 80's. Hunter numbers will plummet, all the well intended conservationist pumps will sit idle, and the pendulum will swing once again when water returns to the PPR. Just my .02.

[Darren]

Specialized habitat increases to our north have also taken it's toll over time. Anyone that says any different just wants to believe otherwise or refuses to believe that the efforts that they support are actually working against them. It's a multi-faceted dilemma that can only be corrected by another dry spell on the PPR. It's at that time that we will see just what we saw in the 80's. Hunter numbers will plummet, all the well intended conservationist pumps will sit idle, and the pendulum will swing once again when water returns to the PPR. Just my .02.

I agree with all of this, 100%, and have stated as much on here before and in other outlets. Waterfowl hunting is big business, and the "haves" of the upper end of the flyway are carving out their moist soil unit paradises when they never did before. It's not the corn issue that Flyway Fed would try to sell you on, it's just those that can, doing so with the means they have, entirely within the means of the law. I don't think it's holding the birds indefinitely, but I do think it absolutely slows the migration train down.

[Ducaholic]

Specialized habitat increases to our north have also taken it's toll over time. Anyone that says any different just wants to believe otherwise or refuses to believe that the efforts that they support are actually working against them. It's a multi-faceted dilemma that can only be corrected by another dry spell on the PPR. It's at that time that we will see just what we saw in the 80's. Hunter numbers will plummet, all the well intended conservationist pumps will sit idle, and the pendulum will swing once again when water returns to the PPR. Just my .02.

I agree with all of this, 100%, and have stated as much on here before and in other outlets. Waterfowl hunting is big business, and the "haves" of the upper end of the flyway are carving out their moist soil unit paradises when they never did before. It's not the corn issue that Flyway Fed would try to sell you on, it's just those that can, doing so with the means they have, entirely within the means of the law. I don't think it's holding the birds indefinitely, but I do think it absolutely slows the migration train down.

Flooded unharvested crops are a part of the habitat explosion equation. How big a part is what no one in the conservation community seems to be interested in quantifying. I applaud the FFL guys for their zest in bringing this to everyone's attention. Yes, Goins got off on a terrible note but I have since talked to a few guys within the core group that see things with much greater clarity and they actually have a vision for their group. Whether they are ever successful remains to be seen but I won't discount their efforts or the impact that flooded unharvested crops are having on the migration as a whole and certainly on mallards. Imprinting is real.

Good discussion. I secured a rice field lease in a good flyway this year so I'm excited. Haven't had a bang ups season since 2013/14 season so I'm hoping for dry and cold until January and then I like to see a little back water flooding to finish things off.

[SpinnerMan]

but I won't discount their efforts or the impact that flooded unharvested crops are having on the migration as a whole and certainly on mallards. Imprinting is real.

Also don't discount the large increase in warmwater discharges and no till farming. The few flooded crops up here are froze solid, but we still have piles of mallards living on all the open water and eating corn in the harvested fields. The rich guys with frozen crops actually got our zone lines changed so they had an extra week before they froze out. They wouldn't have done that if the birds were hitting these fields after it freezes and we have a lot more birds in the area late, so I trust that these guys really don't have birds after it freezes.

Last year in January, the field next to the one we were hunting in, looking through the binoculars, it was acres of wall to wall ducks. We had tons of ducks in north east part of the central zone of Illinois all the way through the end of the January goose season. And that's just one cooling lake. Even when we had the polar vortex with low temps in the -20's the ducks didn't move south. They are getting like the geese where it takes a lot of snow to move them south.

What I don't understand is that their surveys seem to show less ducks than the total number that I see. There is a survey from the 11/14. I hunted 11/30 and saw thousands of ducks, but the survey said only 3,000. That's two weeks, so it could have changed. However, they did a survey on the 1/11 and said there were only 1,300 mallards. The 18th I saw tons of mallards. And pretty much the entire month people were seeing tons of mallards. They just never left the area because we never got enough snow to move them on. I don't know how they do the surveys in the area, but it seems like they are missing most of the ducks in the area. Maybe a large fraction are just spending all day in the fields and fly from field to field. They also survey much less frequently than I remember a decade ago.


These were all built in the 70's or maybe late 60's.

There were also a lot of big coal plants built at the same time.

If we are holding ducks at the end of January, they simply don't NEED to migrate further south, flooded crops or not.

There has also been big environmental changes over that time. The forcing of building retention ponds and restoring of wetlands. They built an interstate extension near me a few years ago. It is lined with retention ponds which are some of the best waterfowl habitat in the area. They also rehabbed a large marsh near me which is now the area that holds the most waterfowl during much of the season.

There have been a lot of dramatic changes and it is not surprising that this has impacted waterfowl behavior for those species like Canada Geese and mallards that simply don't have a biological need to migrate and have always had large subsets that did not migrate further than necessary. Simple Darwinian math would favor these birds over those that migrate further south. The mallards that stop where I live are hunted for over 30 days less than the populations of mallards that migrate far south. On top of that, they face far less hunting pressure as well. Hunter mortality has got to be a lot lower so over time the populations would be expected to grow faster.

Why would the populations not be expected to shift away from the places where the most hunters are killing the most birds to the places where the least hunters are killing the least birds?

I think to bring things back to the good old days, we need to extend seasons up north until the end of January Last year if we could have hunted ducks in January it would have been freaking awesome. We'll keep the pressure on them for you all

[Ducaholic]

Shoot em is all I can say...

[SpinnerMan]

Shoot em is all I can say...

They don't usually show up in big numbers until the law says we can't shoot 'em.

I just want to help you guys out Keep 'em moving down the flyway and stop the short stopping them up here.

Honestly, a relative tiny fraction of the birds move through where I am at. However, I don't see any reason why the same behavior wouldn't exist across most of the Mississippi and even Central Flyway.

And I do think that the huge investments in refuges, both public and private, aren't helping to keep the birds moving south either. I don't think it is the flooded crops as much as it is the large expansion in safe havens and what sounds like very little safe haven down your way with the explosion of the popularity of waterfowl hunting.

When I started hunting during the low point of the population, there were way more ducks and geese where I hunted on the Susquehanna. However, there are virtually no safe havens in the area and now, I almost never see a duck or a goose when I'm in the area, but there was an explosion of hunters that came on in the 90's when the resident goose numbers took off.

If only I knew what the hell I was doing back then, we had pretty much the whole river to ourselves and plenty of ducks and geese. Just no clue what to do and nobody to teach us. We didn't even have youtube

[Ducaholic]

Pressure is a real presence and is an accountable factor in bird movement and disposition.

[Rick]

It's my understanding that shortened migration is being seen in many non game bird species world-wide, so there's that universal trend without even throwing in the ethanol corn boom, no till farming, increased power plant and other warm water discharges to our north, as well as tremendous habitat loss and increased pressure on what remains down here. And some Louisiana folks want to poke the regulatory hornets' nest over the role flooded grain plays, despite it's possible implications for rice land or, perhaps, any unnaturally flooded land hunting.

Bleeding geniuses.

[Darren]

For those focusing on the breeding pops reported from May, a gentle reminder that we dont hunt B-pops, we hunt B-pops + brood.

[Darren]

“This year’s pond count and nesting conditions are truly a tale of two countries,” Rohwer said. “Canada is in bad shape — it started dry and got even drier. I haven’t seen portions of Canada this dry since the mid-1980s. However, the prairies in the Dakotas started wet and stayed ridiculously wet. The problem is that while many of the duck estimates in the U.S. are up, it wasn’t enough to compensate for dry conditions in a region as massive and important to ducks as prairie Canada.”

However, Rohwer said production in the highly wet eastern Dakotas region — where mallards are up 54 percent, pintails rose 64 percent, bluewings jumped 19 percent and total ducks are up 29 percent — has been exceptional. That’s good news for hunters, who shoot the fall flight, not the breeding population.

“The numbers aren’t as bad as they appear,” Rohwer said. “For example, even though bluewings are down, a higher portion of their breeding population than average settled in the wet Dakotas, where they should produce ducklings like crazy.”

Even though breeding duck numbers are down overall, the U.S. prairies were incredibly wet from south to north, which will lead to strong duck production. Conditions remained wet and actually improved during the breeding season, with temporary and seasonal wetlands retaining water into July and August.

“So when the prairies were dry last year, it hurt duck production, and in turn, duck hunters,” he said. “We saw it in Louisiana and elsewhere. But this year, ducks nested and renested in the U.S. prairies with a vengeance and should have high brood survival in those landscapes.”

Strong production in the U.S. prairies should also increase the number of more easily decoyed juveniles in the fall flight, compared to the savvy, adult birds many hunters encountered last season.

“There will be plenty of ducks in the fall flight, and I expect duck hunters, especially in the southern U.S., to have a better season this year,” Rohwer said.

[MARSH BEAR]

I like what Mr. Rohwer said - I just hope he is right, especially the part about southern hunters having more ducks.

[Ducaholic]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/farmers-alma ... mperatures

[Ericdc]

Hoping they are right about the snow and cold down to the Missouri and Arkansas border. That never happened last year.


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[Darren]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/farmers-almanac-winter-snow-cold-frigid-temperatures

Nothing but positives in here this morning

Capture.JPG

"Frigid and Snowy" would be ideal for Dakotas down to Ark, yes please.

[Ducaholic]

Figured you boys could use a little pumping up today...

Downside is Eric is going to lose about 20 days of hunting this year to ice. Guess I’ll have to host him a time or two.

[Ericdc]

Figured you boys could use a little pumping up today...

Downside is Eric is going to lose about 20 days of hunting this year to ice. Guess I’ll have to host him a time or two.

20 days would be a harder winter than we’ve had in at least 10 years. Season before last set the record with 8 days of 3-4” inch.


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