Preseason 2019-2020

[Darren]

The GFS model is hanging on to a really good one for the following week, right around Halloween (below)

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Sure enough:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... est/608859

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First one with a good bit of punch that looks like it'll linger; we'll need it to get the water levels down a bit more.

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[DComeaux]

These NW winds are doing a number on what little land we have around us. Due north and NE would be key to keeping our erosion to a minimum, especially with this high water. It's an overwhelming situation, mentally and financially.

[Ducaholic]

Things are looking up for the Coastal Opener. I'll be curious to find out what the November Survey looks like?

[Darren]

Things are looking up for the Coastal Opener. I'll be curious to find out what the November Survey looks like?

Looking great for Saturday's youth hunters. Have a couple of buddies taking kids in the greater Delacroix area so will get an idea of what's going on from them. No big fronts currently showing for next week, at the moment at least.

[Darren]

Things are looking up for the Coastal Opener. I'll be curious to find out what the November Survey looks like?

No big fronts currently showing for next week, at the moment at least.

Well, just as I say that, models are showing a really good one for CZ opening weekend as of this morning. Note the temps down into AR

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And for THIS week

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[SpinnerMan]

Wait what? I'm supposed to get about 3" of snow this week

I had to look. Thursday night low of 23, winds 26 gusting to 52 with 0.5" of snow More rain than snow predicted on accuweather than that map, but we're on the border where a few degrees one way or the other will make a big difference on what comes down. After that it's predicted to be nice for the next couple weeks. We want cool and calm for the first 3 weeks of November so I can deer hunt the rut. Duck hunting has been so poor the last few years, deer is my main focus in November. Basically I hunt ducks when it is too windy to hunt deer or I just need a break from sitting in the deer stand. The worthless long range forecast actually looks good for November deer, December ducks, and January geese. Let's hope that's how it plays out.

[Darren]

Sure enough! Will be interesting to see if the GFS sticks to its guns on this big front for next weekend or wavers. Official forecasts haven't bought in yet but it's a long way out.

[SpinnerMan]

Well this is what my wife posted on facebook after I left for work this morning.

More rain than snow predicted on accuweather than that map, but we're on the border where a few degrees one way or the other will make a big difference on what comes down.

It went the other way It's crazy heavy snow.

The biggest concern for me is that the farmers were getting the crops out and we've had a ton of precipation over the last week. There is sheet water everywhere. No more crops coming out for at least a couple weeks. That means lots of standing corn for the deer to hide and run around during the rut.

[Darren]

What a mess, looks like you've got ice and snow both.

Is this early for all that? Winter Storm Bessie

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[SpinnerMan]

What a mess, looks like you've got ice and snow both.

Primarily very heavy slush.

[Darren]

Sure enough, the front made it down to Shell Beach with a vengeance a little while ago. Would likely be too much wind for our hunting (though of course we'd go if we could) but really need this much wind from THAT direction to help get the extra water out in a hurry so new birds have it shallow enough to feed.

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[Ducaholic]

Reminiscent of the Arctic Air that pushed through right before the start of the 2014 season.

[Darren]

Reminiscent of the Arctic Air that pushed through right before the start of the 2014 season.

Arctic being the key term there; last season was pacific fronts one after the other (typical El Nino), west to east, not these plunges from the north.

Models are picking back up on a front late next week that may fizzle before making it down to us, but would still be very cold down through MO. Fun to watch when there's things going on

[Ducaholic]

Reminiscent of the Arctic Air that pushed through right before the start of the 2014 season.

Arctic being the key term there; last season was pacific fronts one after the other (typical El Nino), west to east, not these plunges from the north.

Models are picking back up on a front late next week that may fizzle before making it down to us, but would still be very cold down through MO. Fun to watch when there's things going on

I've been watching the 2nd front and it does appear that it will sweep eastward instead of continuing south but it should push birds further southward. I will be very curious to see what the November survey indicates.

[Darren]

Forecasts from multiple outlets are now buying in on this front next Friday, including local met's forecast this AM on TV. Temperature forecasts continue to slide downward for the opener

Going to give the specks a try in the morning, just for kicks, before getting to the final prep work for the East Zone opener on the 23rd.

[SpinnerMan]

Dropped to the low 20's overnight and everything covered with snow right now. Another inch tonight, but it's supposed to warm up next week and stay that way for a little while.

These early cold snaps have in the past always coincided with a catastrophic duck season for me. I hope this is not the case. We have some sheet ice on some waters, but I don't think we will get froze out before it warms back up. But the next cold front, we are froze now that the water temps are near freezing.

[Ducaholic]

Forecasts from multiple outlets are now buying in on this front next Friday, including local met's forecast this AM on TV. Temperature forecasts continue to slide downward for the opener

Going to give the specks a try in the morning, just for kicks, before getting to the final prep work for the East Zone opener on the 23rd.

Noted!

[Darren]

Looking nasty for Friday with the front coming through and lingering rains, might make for a rainy outing to get our brushing done, but it's a perfect forecast for gumbo cooking inside the camp. Saturday's opener weather should be just glorious.

Now that we've got that pretty well set, looking ahead, there appears to be another front passing through next Monday bringing some serious cold well into La

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And yet another one right about Fri-Sat late next week

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Very excited!

Report from guide buddy in Delacroix was a stellar youth hunt saturday with 5 grays, 3 BWT, 2 mottleds, 1 spoon, 1 redhead. Said they saw huge wads of teal burning the marsh all over. Another buddy took his young daughter to the Atchafalaya delta area and she bagged 2 cans, 1 redhead, and a beautiful greenhead.

[Duck Engr]

Mother Nature seems to be doing her part so far. Just need a few freeze thaws in December and we’ll be in good shape!

[Darren]

Now that we've got that pretty well set, looking ahead, there appears to be another front passing through next Monday bringing some serious cold well into La

Sure enough, just as I was seeing it, others are too

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[DComeaux]

Hope it's frozen sold up north. We need to show the young ones more of the migration route. Pack it up,head on down.

[Darren]

Pack it up,head on down.

[Darren]

Pack it up,head on down.

Note to log here; local met all in on the arctic blast coming early next week, including some early talk of potentially frozen precip like sleet.

[DComeaux]

Pack it up,head on down.

Note to log here; local met all in on the arctic blast coming early next week, including some early talk of potentially frozen precip like sleet.

I saw this and have taken the Thursday and Friday off next week.

[Darren]

Pack it up,head on down.

Note to log here; local met all in on the arctic blast coming early next week, including some early talk of potentially frozen precip like sleet.

I saw this and have taken the Thursday and Friday off next week.

Good thinkin. I'm planning for Tues/Fri/Sat next week

[Deltaman]

Good deal We are going to pass on the opening weekend in Venice this year, and will head down next Tuesday, hoping to stay thru Sunday. Glad to see that the weather will be in our flavor for a change. Haven't hunted in a long sleeve shirt down there on the opening week in several years.

[SpinnerMan]

local met all in on the arctic blast coming early next week

Up here, from some time Sunday night until Thurday midday, it is not supposed to get above freezing. Overnight lows as low as 12, and the highs on Monday and Tuesday are only 26. We will be froze out. Although, we have added some aerators to our lakes so there will still be open water, but usually we lose what ducks we have when it freezes. Since we have no ducks, I guess it can't hurt The weather after that doesn't look like it will be opening up much water for some time after that. I hope it at least pushes some ducks and geese to the cooling lakes.

[Darren]

Good deal We are going to pass on the opening weekend in Venice this year, and will head down next Tuesday, hoping to stay thru Sunday. Glad to see that the weather will be in our flavor for a change. Haven't hunted in a long sleeve shirt down there on the opening week in several years.

Ohh it should be legit for you

[Darren]

Didn't want to clutter up Mallard Bay's log with my weather prognostications but the chill I mentioned yesterday gained some traction today, and cooler further south. Morning of Wednesday Dec 4th shown below

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Time will tell if it comes to be but looks promising for the moment.

[DComeaux]

I'm okay with cold weather only if it translates into ducks migrating, other than that it can stay away. I don't have much confidence in weather moving the fowl anymore.