2019-2020 Season Log

[Darren]

I got asked a similar question on radio show Saturday..

Care to elaborate?

I'll be back out there next year and hope it's not like this one, or worse.

It was essentially this:

What's my cut off for harvest vs. keeping up with the sport? At what point in my harvest (or lack thereof) do I give it up?

Don Dubuc's weekly show on Saturday mornings, usually get a call in the blind. Of note, he's partnered with Mr. Goins to found Fowl Mouth Radio, I think airs monthly on a Saturday 8-9am

https://www.dontheoutdoorsguy.com/

[Rick]

What's my cut off for harvest vs. keeping up with the sport? At what point in my harvest (or lack thereof) do I give it up?

Sitting Bull's been credited with the best answer to that.

Don Dubuc's...Of note, he's partnered with Mr. Goins to found Fowl Mouth Radio

Now I don't feel so bad for thinking him a putz without knowing him beyond hearing a bit of his show.

[DComeaux]

My sister was posting old pictures this morning and found this one from 1982. My cousin and I (me on the right) cleaning ducks. I wish I would have taken more pictures of my hunts back then and kept logs. This was before cell phones and the internet, and we actually had a duck migration.

10250097_10208398276377645_8654805389021245798_n.jpg

[Rick]

...This was before cell phones and the internet, and we actually had a duck migration.

And apparently got cold enough outside that you cleaned your ducks inside...

[DComeaux]

...This was before cell phones and the internet, and we actually had a duck migration.

And apparently got cold enough outside that you cleaned your ducks inside...

Seeing that the window is open, I'd doubt that it was cold that day.


Below is what I remember about our winters down here in the duck blind.


Temperature for November 1982
In November 1982 the average high temperature in Lafayette, LA was 74.3°F, and this was 2.2°F warmer than the average of 72.2°F. The hottest day in November 1982 was 1 November when the temperature reached 84.9°F. Overnight the average temperature in November is 51.1°F and in 1982 the average overnight temperature was 1.5°F warmer at 52.6°F.

Temperature for December 1982
In December 1982 the average high temperature in Lafayette, LA was 67.7°F, and this was 2.7°F warmer than the average of 65.0°F. The hottest day in December 1982 was 25 December when the temperature reached 79.0°F. Overnight the average temperature in December is 45.4°F and in 1982 the average overnight temperature was 4.8°F warmer at 50.2°F.

Temperature for January 1983
In January 1983 the average high temperature in Lafayette, LA was 61.0°F, and this was 2.1°F cooler than the average of 63.1°F. The hottest day in January 1983 was 8 January when the temperature reached 72.9°F. Overnight the average temperature in January is 44.2°F and in 1983 the average overnight temperature was 1.4°F cooler at 42.7°F.

[Ducaholic]

Christmas in 83 we got down into the teens and single digits for several nights. Entire lakes froze solid. Same thing happened in 89 but in January. Then in 2000 it happened again right around the first of the year. January 2018 we locked up not once but twice.

When the mud puddles don't freeze several times a year it's not cold enough.

[Rick]

We moved to a rental in Lafayette in Jan of '83, and I don't remember the temps, but by Jan '84 we'd bought a house and I can remember neighbors making little mud, leaf and snow men there one winter. Thought it a hoot.

Dave, even in the frozen north, we'd open a window to let the smell out when cleaning birds inside. Don't know that was you case, just that it was ours.

[DComeaux]

Christmas in 83 we got down into the teens and single digits for several nights. Entire lakes froze solid. Same thing happened in 89 but in January. Then in 2000 it happened again right around the first of the year. January 2018 we locked up not once but twice.

When the mud puddles don't freeze several times a year it's not cold enough.

It does get colder from time to time, but on average it is what it is. I do believe weather is a factor in moving birds but today there is much more to the equation than just that. I wish I had the time and gumption to research flyway weather in correlation to migration numbers and harvest data over the past 40 years.

[Ducaholic]

You know I agree with you. All I’m saying is for the Average Joe to have a good season we need 3-4 well timed Arctic pushes per season. One in Mid-Nov. Two in second half of Dec. and another within the first 10 days of January.

Obviously that’s a perfect scenario but that’s what it takes today. Anything less and we can’t compete with what is happening to our north. Also don’t diminish the impact of what duck farms in Louisiana are having on local distribution in our own state.

With that said the better spots will always harvest at higher rates. We see that on this forum and it’s true across the board.

All I can say is hope for colder winters because no one gives a damn if you or I are killing ducks.

That’s just the way it is if the mud puddles don’t freeze.

[Darren]

...This was before cell phones and the internet, and we actually had a duck migration.

And apparently got cold enough outside that you cleaned your ducks inside...

Seeing that the window is open, I'd doubt that it was cold that day.


Below is what I remember about our winters down here in the duck blind.


Temperature for November 1982
In November 1982 the average high temperature in Lafayette, LA was 74.3°F, and this was 2.2°F warmer than the average of 72.2°F. The hottest day in November 1982 was 1 November when the temperature reached 84.9°F. Overnight the average temperature in November is 51.1°F and in 1982 the average overnight temperature was 1.5°F warmer at 52.6°F.

Temperature for December 1982
In December 1982 the average high temperature in Lafayette, LA was 67.7°F, and this was 2.7°F warmer than the average of 65.0°F. The hottest day in December 1982 was 25 December when the temperature reached 79.0°F. Overnight the average temperature in December is 45.4°F and in 1982 the average overnight temperature was 4.8°F warmer at 50.2°F.

Temperature for January 1983
In January 1983 the average high temperature in Lafayette, LA was 61.0°F, and this was 2.1°F cooler than the average of 63.1°F. The hottest day in January 1983 was 8 January when the temperature reached 72.9°F. Overnight the average temperature in January is 44.2°F and in 1983 the average overnight temperature was 1.4°F cooler at 42.7°F.

So the winters 36-37 years ago were a whole lot like what we see today, and what my log shows since 2002. This "doesn't get cold anymore" narrative is pretty tired, and unfounded. As also pointed out, it locked up solid in Jan 2018 (during what was a very strong 2017-2018 season), we had snow in BR in around Dec 7 2017, I recall because it was my bday, and again in early Jan. 2018. But online the story is "it don't get cold anymore".

Though we started off strong with some true arctic fronts, it's been nearly exclusively pacific fronts through the bulk of December and so far early in Jan, and that's just not going to do a whole lot for us.

[Ducaholic]

Average temps don’t mean anything. It takes arctic weather events to move ducks. Several of them in any given season preferably. Several hard freezes to the Arkansas line ideally speaking.

[DComeaux]

Average temps don’t mean anything. It takes arctic weather events to move ducks. Several of them in any given season preferably. Several hard freezes to the Arkansas line ideally speaking.

From my recollection, major fronts weren't considered near as important in years past as they are today. We always seemed to do okay without them, but no doubt had a better fowling experience when we did. Those fronts would send in reinforcements, "new birds" those that didn't know the game yet. We're obviously not getting the migration we could or should have without a big arctic event, but today I even have my doubts about that. I'm getting the impression from many that we'd need the most extreme winters experienced in history occurring every year to get ducks, and that ain't gonna happen.

[SpinnerMan]

Check the snow line. It's not just cold, but cold and snow. The snow line is a big determiner of where the Canadas and mallards are at. The Canadas will be north of the zone line. I like when the 9-20 inch color is over top of us. Mallards are ahead of and in the snow. So again, we get the ducks before the geese, but when we have 9-20 inches of snow, we will be able to kill ducks and geese in the fields. When we have just cold and are south of the snow line we might have ducks.

You have to consider both the cold and the snow. The last few years, the cold and the snow have not been normal. We've had cold with no snow. The cold doesn't last and any snow we did get doesn't last. This winter we have almost not had any snow cover and we are going to get 2-3" of rain the next couple days. It will be followed by a few inches of snow, so MAYBE we might get some geese on Sat/Sun but the fields are going to be effing soup underneath which is miserable hunting conditions. Then the highs go back to 40 for a few days which will probably melt the little snow we get and any benefits will probably be lost.

Cold and snow need to be factored in. Snow at the right time has been quite lacking. Not to mention we hit the 60's over Christmas. These warm spikes wipe out any snow you do get.

[Ducaholic]

Dave,

That very well may be the case for the Coastal Zone but for the East Zone in Central La. it’s absolutely essential for the Average Joe. So is enough water on the landscape by the time Christmas rolls around in order to hold what comes.

Snow on the ground is important but only if we getting the kind of frontal action that lowers temps to keep it there. If I have to choose between ice and snow I’ll take ice every time. Lock it up and watch what happens.

Anyways got three more weekends to hunt. Hopefully I’ll be able to trick a few.

[SpinnerMan]

If I have to choose between ice and snow I’ll take ice every time. Lock it up and watch what happens.

There are so many factors that have changed over the last few decades.

When it gets arctic, we have a highly productive cooling lake pattern. This did not exist decades ago. It exists because of three factors. First was obviously building the large cooling lakes mainly in the 70's and 80's. The one I hunt by was commissioned in 1988. Second was the large shift to no-till farming. Most farmers do not plow their fields in the fall. We can debate how much grain falls on the ground but the fact is the birds are not starving or they would leave. The third thing was the resident geese. Huge flocks of live decoys attracted the birds that use to only be seen as high flying V's. There was a massive shift of where the MVP geese (our main migratory population of Canadas) winters. I think that has affected mallards too because a goose spread attracts ducks in the fields. Not unusual to have ducks come in and land in your all goose spread after duck season has closed.

There are just so many factors. Not to mention that birds that had further south are going to have a much higher probability of being killed by hunters because of the much greater hunting pressure and the longer period of time they are subjected to hunters. Our duck season closed two weeks ago. Zero hunter mortality if they go no further south. Obviously a lot higher than 0% if they head to southern Louisiana where they can be killed for an extra month. Those small increases in mortality compounded over decades has got to effect the winter distribution of ducks that have a winter range that spans nearly 1,000 miles from the northern most ducks to the southern most ducks unless there is absolutely no correlation year over year between the ducks that went to southern LA and those that never went further south than central IL. I just doubt most of the ducks we see this January were ducks or their offspring that spent last winter in LA or the ducks or their offspring that you seen next year were ones that never went further south than central IL even when it got arctic. If ducks that stay north are more likely to stay north in future years and those that go south are more likely to go south in future years, the higher hunter mortality unless absolute 100% compensatory harvest is going to shift populations from south to north over time. It's very simply Darwinian evolution in practice. Slow changes compounded by small differences over many generations.

[DComeaux]

Check the snow line.

How many years following, lets use 1980, do you think you'd find "sustained" snow cover within the area I've marked on your map during duck season?

nsm_depth_current_National.jpg

[DComeaux]

This is a link that will start you off in 1997. https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/gif_archive.html

I haven't found data going back further, as of yet.


Christmas 1997

Dec 25th 1997.gif

Christmas 1998

DEC 25 1998.gif

[SpinnerMan]

Check the snow line.

How many years following, lets use 1980, do you think you'd find "sustained" snow cover within the area I've marked on your map during duck season?

nsm_depth_current_National.jpg

Sustained for how long?

The depth matters. My chart only has inches of snow over most of Canada. Your figure doesn't distinguish between an inch of snow or a foot of snow. Having an inch is very different than having a foot.

Your figure shows snow over all of Iowa and northern Missouri, but little in the Dakotas in Christmas 1997. If that was a foot of snow over Iowa and northern Mo, that will move birds. If it's an inch, it won't.

The species matters as well. The snow doesn't have any impact on divers. It doesn't have any effect on species that don't eat on dry land. It also doesn't have effect on species that don't include northern regions in their wintering range.

My point is that need to consider more than just temperature. Both snow and temperature have an impact.

But yes, you need to look at the average number of days that there is snow cover in that region above a certain depth. I'll bet the number of mallards you see is correlated with that. Snow moves birds too is my point. And it seems, no scientific info, just how it seems to me, that the number of days where we get the snow we need is less than it used to be.

From my recollection, major fronts weren't considered near as important in years past as they are today.

My suspicion is that you are probably correct. I believe part of the reason is that the snow pattern has shifted. But there are other things like decades of high hunting pressure on all birds that go south versus staying north were the season is closed. More open water up north. More food available up north (not just flooded corn, but all sources which I think are far bigger). To over come these other factors that have shifted away from your favor, you need more snow and more hard cold which we seem to have less of at least at the times it matters.

Just many factors to consider. All of them seem to be shifting unfavorably for hunting hardy species at the southern edge of their winter range.

[DComeaux]

Check the snow line.

How many years following, lets use 1980, do you think you'd find "sustained" snow cover within the area I've marked on your map during duck season?

nsm_depth_current_National.jpg

Sustained for how long?

The depth matters. My chart only has inches of snow over most of Canada. Your figure doesn't distinguish between an inch of snow or a foot of snow. Having an inch is very different than having a foot.

For whatever time you think it'll take to get them pushed south. Long term snow at those lower latitudes is not the norm.

Snow depth to me is irrelevant today due to the abundance of accessible food, AKA "habitat" up yonder. If they find it they will not go far, and they will be back.

I have a relative that's a dentist and has had a lease on the coast near Rockefeller Refuge for many, many years. They are doing as poorly as the majority of us down here, so he made a trip to Oklahoma last season and they did extremely well. He told us that he could not believe the amount of corn on the ground in the fields they hunted. His comments and thoughts were that there's no way a farmer looking to turn a profit could unintentionally leave that much grain on the ground behind those combines without trying to fix the issue. It was that obvious. Multiply that a few thousand times in the flyway north of us and limit pressure.

[SpinnerMan]

Check the snow line.

How many years following, lets use 1980, do you think you'd find "sustained" snow cover within the area I've marked on your map during duck season?

nsm_depth_current_National.jpg

Sustained for how long?

The depth matters. My chart only has inches of snow over most of Canada. Your figure doesn't distinguish between an inch of snow or a foot of snow. Having an inch is very different than having a foot.

For whatever time you think it'll take to get them pushed south. Long term snow at those lower latitudes is not the norm.

Snow depth to me is irrelevant today due to the abundance of accessible food, AKA "habitat" up yonder. If they find it they will not go far, and they will be back.

I have a relative that's a dentist and has had a lease on the coast near Rockefeller Refuge for many, many years. They are doing as poorly as the majority of us down here, so he made a trip to Oklahoma last season and they did extremely well. He told us that he could not believe the amount of corn on the ground in the fields they hunted. His comments and thoughts were that there's no way a farmer looking to turn a profit could unintentionally leave that much grain on the ground behind those combines without trying to fix the issue. It was that obvious. Multiply that a few thousand times in the flyway north of us and limit pressure.

Sustained snow and cold up where we are pushes birds south of us, although not as much as it did when there was less cooling lakes and warm water discharges. Then weather in the middle will push them even further south. I didn't mean to imply that you needed the snow line to central LA to increase birds in southern LA.

I meant that when you have birds spread out for 1,000 miles from southern Canada to southern LA, hunting in southern LA is going to be suffer relative when there are few birds for 500 miles south of Canada because you have over a foot of snow on the ground all the way to northern Missouri. You've compressed the birds distribution by half. A good thing when you are in the right half. And then get some weather in that half and they get compressed further and then spread back out when it warms.

Right now, there are still probably a quite a few ducks in Minnesota and the Dakotas. They should have been gone for 2 months like they would have been if the snow line was 500 miles south than it currently.

I am talking about the snow cover north of the area that you circled. The further south the snow line, particularly above a foot, the more compressed the birds are that string out over the entire range when they are not forced to reduce their winter range because of a lack of open water and access to food because of snow cover. With the current snow cover, there are mallards spread over 1,000 miles. As the heavy snow line moves south, you have birds over 900, 800, ... It takes a much strong front to move birds that are that far north. They will move a couple hundred miles. That's not a lot of flying. Moving 600-700 miles is a lot more flying and requires a lot harder sustained push.

[DComeaux]

Check the snow line.

How many years following, lets use 1980, do you think you'd find "sustained" snow cover within the area I've marked on your map during duck season?

nsm_depth_current_National.jpg

Sustained for how long?

The depth matters. My chart only has inches of snow over most of Canada. Your figure doesn't distinguish between an inch of snow or a foot of snow. Having an inch is very different than having a foot.

For whatever time you think it'll take to get them pushed south. Long term snow at those lower latitudes is not the norm.

Snow depth to me is irrelevant today due to the abundance of accessible food, AKA "habitat" up yonder. If they find it they will not go far, and they will be back.

I have a relative that's a dentist and has had a lease on the coast near Rockefeller Refuge for many, many years. They are doing as poorly as the majority of us down here, so he made a trip to Oklahoma last season and they did extremely well. He told us that he could not believe the amount of corn on the ground in the fields they hunted. His comments and thoughts were that there's no way a farmer looking to turn a profit could unintentionally leave that much grain on the ground behind those combines without trying to fix the issue. It was that obvious. Multiply that a few thousand times in the flyway north of us and limit pressure.

Sustained snow and cold up where we are pushes birds south of us, although not as much as it did when there was less cooling lakes and warm water discharges. Then weather in the middle will push them even further south. I didn't mean to imply that you needed the snow line to central LA to increase birds in southern LA.

I meant that when you have birds spread out for 1,000 miles from southern Canada to southern LA, hunting in southern LA is going to be suffer relative when there are few birds for 500 miles south of Canada because you have over a foot of snow on the ground all the way to northern Missouri. You've compressed the birds distribution by half. A good thing when you are in the right half. And then get some weather in that half and they get compressed further and then spread back out when it warms.

Right now, there are still probably a quite a few ducks in Minnesota and the Dakotas. They should have been gone for 2 months like they would have been if the snow line was 500 miles south than it currently.

I am talking about the snow cover north of the area that you circled. The further south the snow line, particularly above a foot, the more compressed the birds are that string out over the entire range when they are not forced to reduce their winter range because of a lack of open water and access to food because of snow cover. With the current snow cover, there are mallards spread over 1,000 miles. As the heavy snow line moves south, you have birds over 900, 800, ... It takes a much strong front to move birds that are that far north. They will move a couple hundred miles. That's not a lot of flying. Moving 600-700 miles is a lot more flying and requires a lot harder sustained push.

I'd assume the cooling lakes you mention, much like our large marsh lakes here are loafing and refuge areas. They'll venture out to food in weather or after LST in the evenings. IMO, It will take a lot more snow on the ground geographically for a longer period of time to have any affect today, and once it melts they'll mosey on up the flyway to the feed. I'm hoping that the telemetry data will shed light on a few of the things I mention and what we'd all like to know. Where are the ducks?

[SpinnerMan]

I'd assume the cooling lakes you mention, much like our large marsh lakes here are loafing and refuge areas.

They are. While they will feed after dark once they have been in the area awhile, it doesn't seem like it is anywhere near the problem that is faced by ducks around refuges further to the south. The bigger problem is that they figure out where the safe fields are. They have a million acres to choose from within a half hour flight of the lake. The many problem over the last decade has been getting weather to put ducks into the cooling lake before the season closes and to put geese into the lake for any sustained period of time.

It will take a lot more snow on the ground geographically for a longer period of time to have any affect today

I think you are correct that it takes more snow and I think we have a lot less days with snow on the ground

once it melts they'll mosey on up the flyway to the feed

They head back north pretty quick in general.

In a good year, this yo-yo is to our advantage. New birds from the north that eventually are forced south. Then it warms and we get new birds from the south that eventually go north. Then next cycle and we get new birds back from the north. Then we have several periods of new birds making everyone think they are God's gift to waterfowling and in between there are always huntable numbers of birds to challenge your actual skills.

At this point, I might not hunt one single day near the cooling lake. When I first started and had a ditch blind on the generally slower side of the lake, I would hunt every weekend from mid December until the end of January and we generally got some birds. However, there have been a lot of bad years with some good periods mixed in.

[Ducaholic]

Telemetry will not change the way ducks are managed or what is allowed from a personal management perspective.

[DComeaux]

Telemetry will not change the way ducks are managed or what is allowed from a personal management perspective.

I agree, and we'll never see the data.

[DComeaux]

Our retired hunter on the lease got his boat out of the shop yesterday and made a hunt this morning. I sent a text asking how things were going and he called me. He only took a gray and a GW but said he missed his limit. He was covered in GW and saw a fair amount of birds, including grays. Told me on his run out he jumped big wads between our blinds, in places that have been void all year, and he flushed a large number of grays from our decoys and the surrounding area of the boat ditch north of our blind.

This may be a case of "should-a been here yesterday". I get to hunt with my son this weekend and I'm really looking forward to it. I sure hope the birds cooperate.

[Rick]

Cross your fingers and toes and hope they don't get blown out...

[Darren]

Our retired hunter on the lease got his boat out of the shop yesterday and made a hunt this morning. I sent a text asking how things were going and he called me. He only took a gray and a GW but said he missed his limit. He was covered in GW and saw a fair amount of birds, including grays. Told me on his run out he jumped big wads between our blinds, in places that have been void all year, and he flushed a large number of grays from our decoys and the surrounding area of the boat ditch north of our blind.

This may be a case of "should-a been here yesterday". I get to hunt with my son this weekend and I'm really looking forward to it. I sure hope the birds cooperate.

Hope you find them in your dekes and wanting back in again and again.

[DComeaux]

Date: 1/11/2020

Hunters: Me and Justin

Cloud Cover: Overcast

Wind Direction and Velocity: very Light breeze from the west behind the squall line to start then 20+ same direction later in the morning

Temperature: Upper 60's

Waterfowl Activity: Very few ducks seen

Waterfowl Responsiveness:

Birds total and by Species: Nothing

Rain was ending just as we were leaving the camp before LST. What birds were in the marsh yesterday were gone. The guy I lease from did a test run of his new 40 hp pro-drive yesterday in the early afternoon and had told me he jumped many birds in the marsh along the ditch and when he made the turnaround at our blind. The weather must have pushed them out, cause it was dead. We heard very few shots this morning except for a blind to our west in big water harassing the poor little ruddys. The far back blind (lease holder) took 2 and the north blind 1. I did drop a teal that flushed from the decoys that my son was slow getting on and it was lively. Ellie was in hot pursuit but it dove next to the marsh bank and we never saw it again. Ellie worked that area for a good while and I even got out of the blind, going over to work her further in the marsh. HOO Boy am I out of shape!

More of these wonderful things. Maybe next year I'll be able to post strap pictures.

20200111_110424.jpg

[DComeaux]

Date: 1/12/2020

My son and I got up this morning with the alarm, poked our heads outside and came to the conclusion that neither of us had the envie to just go through the motions. Got home early and will put some crabs on the grill and spend time with the grandbabies. While packing up we heard very little shooting the first hour or so of LST. The lack of fowl seen on the drive out is surreal, especially during the early morning hours.

[DComeaux]

Date: 1/17/2020

Hunters: Me and Randall

Cloud Cover: Overcast

Wind Direction and Velocity: SE 5 to 10

Temperature: 60's?

Waterfowl Activity: GW were pretty much absent and we saw a few gadwall and a low pair of pintail I thought we'd get.

Waterfowl Responsiveness: HA!

Birds total and by Species: (2) gadwall

It is pretty much void of fowl down here. There were three of us hunting the lease this morning and I hunted with the lease holder in his blind. The other guy took 2. The refuge manager took a few VIP's on an air boat tour this week and told us that the refuge is holding very few fowl, and I hear one on the move again today as I type this. He, the manager, hunted a couple of miles west of us this morning on land he helps manage and had 4 when we got out of our blind at 10. They were getting ready to leave when a large flock of GW came into the decoys and they were able to add a few more to the strap.

Blake is on his way and he and I will be in the blind in the morning. We did flush some gadwall around our blind on the ride out.