Final Numbers

[MallardBay]

Second split # were up some from first split. It "felt" a whole lot better but ended up 338/380. I would say my "best" hunts all came later in second split. Shot 60 mallards 1st split and 64 in 2nd. Shot 7 specks first and 8 in second. Did not hunt Christmas day.

Final 2019-2020 Big Duck Tally

718 Ducks
124 Mallards
15 specks

[Deltaman]

WOW.............impressive numbers, and glad to see that there really are some ducks that still migrate
Congrats on a Great season MB

[Rick]

That's pretty incredible. Gather you were on the east side, as second-hand reports for the west side were more the area norm.

Glad enough made it down that someone was on them, anyway.

[MallardBay]

That's pretty incredible. Gather you were on the east side, as second-hand reports for the west side were more the area norm.

We dont hunt our West blind when camp is short of our 12 sports which is often. West blind shot the least of our 6 but still managed 10 birds shy of 500. I wouldnt call it a gar hole but yea it doesnt see the traffic the east has.

BTW a couple PM and text had questions i'd figure i'd share my answers. We are 100% freshmarsh. Not impounded. No millet or any other man-made planting. Just natural habitat. 10 AM curfew. I believe our usual success is do to limited pressure. Not many places can limit pressure the way we can. It aint the loudest call , whistle, or some other secret weapon on the lanyard or Repertoire. Not to slight anyone who thinks they are. Some mornings we are the X, sometimes not. According to my math, I was almost 20% short of "normal". I'm privileged to have the opportunities that I have. I am happy with the season and appreciate the positive responses I received while doing this log for the first time. Special thanks to Olly for providing the opportunity to log. Hopefully next season will be better for all of us.

[Darren]

Good deal, thanks for sharing. Always excited to see other La hunters to correlate/compare my own observations. The "no ducks in La" crowd won't like your results but I enjoyed seeing the pics from the blind.

[Rick]

Have you followed the controversy over your White Lake Complex neighbors closely enough to provide a synopsis?

(I assumed the Gueydan meeting concerning such wouldn't amount to anything more than a chance for disappointed hunters to blow off steam to each other and didn't attend.)

[MallardBay]

I attended the meeting in Gueydan as did close to 100 other concerned waterfowlers. Saw Mr. Doug and Ed from your camp there. I along with many others spoke durimg the meeting. White Lake has a host of issues that hopefully will be getting attention. It did surprise me that several in the room including the manager of the camp adjacent to Lulu's voiced disbelief that White Lake is as important to our local #'s of waterfowl as it is. I can talk at length about the issue to anyone that wants to discuss. I along with several other concerned individuals that have interests affected by White Lake met with LDWF officials last week in Lafayette concerning the issues. I believe it was a productive meeting but time will tell if as much is accomplished as discussed.

[Ducaholic]

Good deal, thanks for sharing. Always excited to see other La hunters to correlate/compare my own observations. The "no ducks in La" crowd won't like your results but I enjoyed seeing the pics from the blind.

People's threshold for success vary and what once was drives it. Regardless of your or my success or lack thereof the fact is that fewer and fewer ducks are coming to La.

Mallard Bay's numbers would be impressive to everyone that I know even those that say there are no ducks in La. but it's not an indicator that all is well.

[DComeaux]

Good deal, thanks for sharing. Always excited to see other La hunters to correlate/compare my own observations. The "no ducks in La" crowd won't like your results but I enjoyed seeing the pics from the blind.

People's threshold for success vary and what once was drives it. Regardless of your or my success or lack thereof the fact is that fewer and fewer ducks are coming to La.

Mallard Bay's numbers would be impressive to everyone that I know even those that say there are no ducks in La. but it's not an indicator that all is well.

I've said this numerous times over the last couple of years, it's not that we are completely cut off it's that we just don't have enough to go around anymore, and it's getting worse. Those with better habitat and managed pressure along with those who are mobile will no doubt have better chances at what's making it here. We have no more overflow.

[MallardBay]

I've said this numerous times over the last couple of years, it's not that we are completely cut off it's that we just don't have enough to go around anymore, and it's getting worse. Those with better habitat and managed pressure along with those who are mobile will no doubt have better chances at what's making it here. We have no more overflow.

Couldnt have said it better myself. Absolutely true.

[Darren]

I've said this numerous times over the last couple of years, it's not that we are completely cut off it's that we just don't have enough to go around anymore, and it's getting worse. Those with better habitat and managed pressure along with those who are mobile will no doubt have better chances at what's making it here. We have no more overflow.

Couldnt have said it better myself. Absolutely true.

No doubt, there's some validity to it, but I find it also a product of being just plainly so darn spoiled for so very long. You didn't have to shoot well, because you could just make up for it on next chance that was a given. Not so much the case any more, hunters on their game are making their hunts/straps.

Have a look at the December 2019 survey trend below. Is this visible evidence of a long-term, steady, downward decline so many speak of? If you can find it in there, please point it out. Point being, I'm not certain its as black and white as "not as many come here anymore", but more likely a product of where the birds that DO come are finding refuge to avoid our insanely high pressure.

Capture.JPG

[MallardBay]

No doubt, there's some validity to it, but I find it also
Point being, I'm not certain its as black and white as "not as many come here anymore", but more likely a product of where the birds that DO come are finding refuge to avoid our insanely high pressure.

I believe for the hunters in maybe a 20 mile radius maybe more of WhiteLake that our nucleus, Unit 2 holds the lions share of birds that give "most" of the area its flight. Ricefields in klondike, Gueydan, Thornwell etc. The marsh around the same area. I graphed the numbers for the Nov surveys that are posted for just Unit 2 which is approxmetly 5000 acres. A couple years there is no data because state does not have it online.

[MallardBay]

Anyone want to guess what happened at beginning of the graph?

[SpinnerMan]

Have a look at the December 2019 survey trend below. Is this visible evidence of a long-term, steady, downward decline so many speak of? If you can find it in there, please point it out. Point being, I'm not certain its as black and white as "not as many come here anymore", but more likely a product of where the birds that DO come are finding refuge to avoid our insanely high pressure.

Capture.JPG

The trend line is very clear

DuckTrend.jpg

[Rick]

Anyone want to guess what happened at beginning of the graph?

I don't think anyone believed the state could maintain the area as AMOCO had, only that the state's stewardship beat the possibility of it being parceled out to private entities that might do less and/or end up putting as much or more pressure on it as most other SWLA marsh.

What viable suggestions for improvement are being offered?

[DComeaux]

No doubt, there's some validity to it, but I find it also a product of being just plainly so darn spoiled for so very long. You didn't have to shoot well, because you could just make up for it on next chance that was a given. Not so much the case any more, hunters on their game are making their hunts/straps.

Capture.JPG

Spoiled is one word but I'd use normal for the bottom of the flyway. Not sure who your second comment was pointed at but you saw my log this year. You MUST have something to shoot at to make a strap. Most people have long term leases and/or do not have the ability or desire to fight public land or hunt around. These are the people noticing the decline in fowl.

Have a look at the December 2019 survey trend below. Is this visible evidence of a long-term, steady, downward decline so many speak of? If you can find it in there, please point it out. Point being, I'm not certain its as black and white as "not as many come here anymore", but more likely a product of where the birds that DO come are finding refuge to avoid our insanely high pressure.

You do realize that we're 2.5 to 3+ MILLION ducks short of the numbers from 25 years ago? There is the overflow. Hopefully that graph heads skyward soon.

[DComeaux]

Anyone want to guess what happened at beginning of the graph?

Couple of things comes to mind but I'll let you tell us.

[Rick]

Assumed it was when the state took over, but see that was 2002.

[MallardBay]

Point being it has been in a steady decline since BP "donated" Prior reports recall even more than the state published 200k+. Reports of 350k+ in just unit 2 when Amaco ran things. The entire marsh is 53k acres. And yes there is less ducks statewide than 25 years ago, but 300k+ then to 1300 this past November on unit 2! Look at the graph.

The State does not have the funds to manage the property correctly. Trying on a shoestring budget. This area that was once managed for 6-10 inches of water has now has 3 feet of water throughout the past several winters. For our local impacted hunters, there is your flight or lack of it.

[Rick]

What viable suggestions for improvement are being offered?

[Darren]

Point being it has been in a steady decline since BP "donated" Prior reports recall even more than the state published 200k+. Reports of 350k+ in just unit 2 when Amaco ran things. The entire marsh is 53k acres. And yes there is less ducks statewide than 25 years ago, but 300k+ then to 1300 this past November on unit 2! Look at the graph.

The State does not have the funds to manage the property correctly. Trying on a shoestring budget. This area that was once managed for 6-10 inches of water has now has 3 feet of water throughout the past several winters. For our local impacted hunters, there is your flight or lack of it.

Via recent communications with LDWF, can confirm, to no one's surprise, budgets are as slim and trim as ever.

[Darren]

No doubt, there's some validity to it, but I find it also a product of being just plainly so darn spoiled for so very long. You didn't have to shoot well, because you could just make up for it on next chance that was a given. Not so much the case any more, hunters on their game are making their hunts/straps.

Capture.JPG

Spoiled is one word but I'd use normal for the bottom of the flyway. Not sure who your second comment was pointed at but you saw my log this year. You MUST have something to shoot at to make a strap. Most people have long term leases and/or do not have the ability or desire to fight public land or hunt around. These are the people noticing the decline in fowl.

Have a look at the December 2019 survey trend below. Is this visible evidence of a long-term, steady, downward decline so many speak of? If you can find it in there, please point it out. Point being, I'm not certain its as black and white as "not as many come here anymore", but more likely a product of where the birds that DO come are finding refuge to avoid our insanely high pressure.

You do realize that we're 2.5 to 3+ MILLION ducks short of the numbers from 25 years ago? There is the overflow. Hopefully that graph heads skyward soon.

The underlined was not directed to you or anyone specific, I know full well what its like to see no game birds in flight, as we sat plenty and watched pelicans and gulls. The point was those on their game made the most of their limited opportunities. Plenty mornings we shot well and strapped a few, and other mornings we sucked and walked out with a light strap. We just can't assume that we'll get 'em on the next flock in as we did in better times.

As for this notion of being 2.5 to 3 million ducks short......so you're citing the drought buster days of mid 90's? Shown on figure below? Statistically that's a huge outlier, perfect storm (for the good), that's not sustainable under modern breeding habitat crunches, and yet very strong seasons were had just a few years back under more average numbers here in the state. The Dec count is, to me, the best indicator of what is happening with a season......you've had a chance for weather to impact the migration that may not have occurred in Nov. As of THIS very season that is now wrapping up (see figure I initially posted yest), you're less than 10% off the long term avg. since 1977, but please, continue the drum beat of "not as many come here", and disregard the notion of the likelihood that they're just going somewhere that doesn't fit me/us. No I don't have them at my lease as we did in prior years either, but darn sure saw them on my boat rides out as noted on numerous hunts I logged here.

Capture.JPG

[Ducaholic]

Since 2004 we are Averaging 1/2 million fewer duck per year per survey month. That is a significant shortage regardless of how you describe it. My choice of words fewer and fewer may be incorrect but it doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking fewer ducks are coming to La.

All of the lowest on record surveys have been recorded during this time frame. Rarely do we meet or exceed LTA. It’s not all doom and gloom but it’s alarming.

[DComeaux]

... but please, continue the drum beat of "not as many come here", and disregard the notion of the likelihood that they're just going somewhere that doesn't fit me/us. No I don't have them at my lease as we did in prior years either, but darn sure saw them on my boat rides out as noted on numerous hunts I logged here.

November survey
The 247,000 total ducks estimated in SW LA is the lowest on record for this survey, and is less than half the next lowest estimate of 581,000 in 2013. The most recent 10-year average for SW LA onthis survey is 994,000. The only notable concentrations of ducks were flocks of gadwalls andbluewings seen in the marsh south of West Cove of Lake Calcasieu, and a large flock of ring-necked ducks in the open water of White Lake (and thus not included in these estimates). Onesmall flock of white-fronted geese were the only geese seen during this portion of the survey.

December Survey
The 1.94 million ducks estimated on this survey is 36% lower than last December’s estimate of 3.02 million and 32% below the long-term December average of 2.84 million.

January Survey
The 2.05 million ducks estimated on this survey is little changed from the 1.94 estimated last month, 33% below last January’s estimate of 3.07 million, and 31% below the long-term average of 2.99 million.

You must be one of the few seeing more of whats getting here that are concentrated in certain areas.

[Darren]

... but please, continue the drum beat of "not as many come here", and disregard the notion of the likelihood that they're just going somewhere that doesn't fit me/us. No I don't have them at my lease as we did in prior years either, but darn sure saw them on my boat rides out as noted on numerous hunts I logged here.

November survey
The 247,000 total ducks estimated in SW LA is the lowest on record for this survey, and is less than half the next lowest estimate of 581,000 in 2013. The most recent 10-year average for SW LA onthis survey is 994,000. The only notable concentrations of ducks were flocks of gadwalls andbluewings seen in the marsh south of West Cove of Lake Calcasieu, and a large flock of ring-necked ducks in the open water of White Lake (and thus not included in these estimates). Onesmall flock of white-fronted geese were the only geese seen during this portion of the survey.

December Survey
The 1.94 million ducks estimated on this survey is 36% lower than last December’s estimate of 3.02 million and 32% below the long-term December average of 2.84 million.

January Survey
The 2.05 million ducks estimated on this survey is little changed from the 1.94 estimated last month, 33% below last January’s estimate of 3.07 million, and 31% below the long-term average of 2.99 million.

You must be one of the few seeing more of whats getting here that are concentrated in certain areas.

Dave, we're using the 2019 survey for discussion, those numbers are from 2018, and yes they were way down, it was the worst season of recent recollection. And yes the dip in these numbers is reflected in the first chart I posted, but it's but one data point, and it jumped back up this year as detailed below.

The 2.57 million ducks on this survey is 2.5 times the November estimate of 1.04 million, 32% higher than last December’s estimate of 1.94 million, but is still 8% below the long-term December average of 2.81 million. The long-term trend in December estimates is depicted in Figure 1, and locations of the 27 transects flown since 1969, 17 in SW LA and 10 in SE LA, are shown in Figure 2. The total from this survey is the same as the most recent 10-year average.

[Ducaholic]

BTW the November 2019 count is one of the 5 lowest on record.

[DComeaux]

Dave, we're using the 2019 survey for discussion,

Those are comments from the 2019-2020 surveys.


I forgot he had updated the November counts adding the NE and NW sections of the state.

The 1.04 million ducks on this survey is the 3rd lowest November estimate since this survey began in 1969 ahead of only 2008 (958,000) and 2013 (1,02 million). It is barely half the most recent 5-year and long-term averages of 2.0 million.

[Darren]

Dave, we're using the 2019 survey for discussion,

Those are comments from the 2019-2020 surveys.


I forgot he had updated the November counts adding the NE and NW sections of the state.

The 1.04 million ducks on this survey is the 3rd lowest November estimate since this survey began in 1969 ahead of only 2008 (958,000) and 2013 (1,02 million). It is barely half the most recent 5-year and long-term averages of 2.0 million.

This narrative underlined below, from your December quote above, is straight off the Dec 2018 survey.

The 1.94 million ducks estimated on this survey is 36% lower than last December’s estimate of 3.02
million and 32% below the long-term December average of 2.84 million. The Southeast portion of this
survey was not completed in November, so no comparisons can be made for that region. However,
estimates increased markedly from November in both Southwest (247,000 to 886,000) and at Catahoula
Lake (103,000 to 156,000) survey regions. All species increased from November in SW LA except for
mottled ducks, which were essentially unchanged.

But careful gents, the argument here is not that birds come later/aren't here in November/season should be set back, the narrative played and played here is "they don't come any more/what little still comes/etc. etc. etc. etc" which the December 2019 survey clearly refutes.

Now, anyone can see there's plainly some alarm in the dwindling NOVEMBER surveys, but as our most recent December survey can attest (and with nothing but Pacific fronts driving it), the birds do in fact still come to our state, within 10% of the long term average.....hardly a sky is falling data point. Are the masses coming later? Maybe, but they're still coming. Are they coming to our favorite spots......maybe not. But still coming nonetheless. One example on my end of things may be that much of Delacroix struggled, there's a blind in every other pond, and mud boats run rampant. BUT the Biloxi Marsh, with its over 35,000 acres of public salt marsh, had a strong season, with mud boat restrictions and sprawling habitat, very low hunter concentrations. Food for thought, perhaps, as the survey indicated in the below discussion.

Why in SE La were the birds so numerous in a couple of areas but sparse in more traditional areas; see narrative from Dec 2019 survey below:

There were a few very large concentrations with broad expanses of very few ducks. The most extreme example was in SE LA where large numbers of ring-necked ducks were counted in the fresh marsh of upper Terrebonne Parish SSE of Amelia, then very few ducks were counted on the next 4 transect lines and the line just south of New Orleans for monitoring the Caernarvon freshwater diversion. Then another tremendous concentration of mostly gadwalls, pintails, and ring-necked ducks was encountered from the West Bay sediment diversion on the west side of the Mississippi River north to past Venice on the east side. Those 2 locations accounted for about 80% of the estimate from the entire SE LA survey region.

Clearly they're keeing in on certain habitats, maybe with less pressure? Do know that some guys I know of that hunted Venice hard were amassing phenomenal straps most of the season with grays, pins, cans, wigeon, etc. like Venice "should be", and wasn't, last year.

Also alarming, though largely out of our control, would be the fewer birds counted in SE La in the Jan 2020 survey. Clearly when mild weather allows, these birds are rebounding off of us and heading northward. See notes from Jan 2020 survey below:

The 2.30 million ducks on this survey is 11% lower than the 2.57 million estimated in December, and 22% below the long-term January average of 2.96 million. In the last 6 years, the January estimate has been essentially the same or lower than in December, and this is the 3rd time during that period it has been at least 10% lower.

The estimate in SE LA fell from 1.33 million in December to only 745,000 primarily due to big declines in pintails (215,000 to 44,000) and gadwalls (467,000 to 191,000). However, estimates for all dabbling ducks except blue-winged teal declined from December, as did that for ring-necked ducks (328,000 to 246,000) in that region.

Note: numbers increased as you'd figure it should in SW La, save for the grays.

In contrast, the overall estimate in SW LA increased from 1.09 million in December to 1.48 million due to increases in green-winged teal (91,000 to 348,000), shovelers (124,000 to 227,000), pintails (29,000 to 129,000), and all 3 diving ducks (155,000 to 328,000) exceeding declines in all other dabbling ducks, especially gadwalls (470,000 to 296,000). Ducks were also more dispersed in SW LA compared to December with the largest concentrations of ducks seen on Rockefeller Refuge, in the marsh between Little Pecan and Grand Lakes, and on the sewage lagoon near Rayne.

[DComeaux]

We just need more birds to make it to this state for everyone to have an opportunity.

[Ducaholic]

Dec. 2004 through Dec. 2019 LTA 2.85 Million
Dec. Survey Averaged 2.4 Million
Dec. Survey 5 years at or above LTA 3.1 Million Average
Dec. Survey 11 years Below LTA 2.15 Million Average