Preseason 2021 - 2022

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:50 am

We're awfully giddy for this forecast down in the marsh this weekend to kick it off:

FRIDAY
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Dominant period 4 seconds.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to
2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or Seas building to 3 to
5 feet with occasional waves to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds
after midnight.

SATURDAY
North winds 15 to 20 knots.
Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Dominant period 4 seconds.

SATURDAY NIGHT
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Dominant period 4 seconds.

SUNDAY
North winds near 10 knots
becoming west in the
afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.


Could face low water on Sunday so likely will have to brush up a backup blind on a deep pond Friday just in case.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby DComeaux » Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:52 pm

I love this forecast.
User avatar
DComeaux
 
Posts: 3845
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:48 pm
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:32 am

Looking ahead, tracking decent front next friday ahead of east zone opener (though friday looking to be THE day instead of Saturday), and also a pretty serious front Monday of thanksgiving week. Loving the train of good fronts

Something fun to watch.....

Monday before t-giving
Capture.JPG


next morning, tuesday
Capture1.JPG
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Rick » Fri Nov 12, 2021 6:32 am

Just ran into Robert from Oak Island camp for the first time in a long time and learned their marsh has been holding a lot of teal, so here's hoping for your extended family.
Rick
 
Posts: 10608
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:38 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Fri Nov 12, 2021 1:07 pm

Rick wrote:Just ran into Robert from Oak Island camp for the first time in a long time and learned their marsh has been holding a lot of teal, so here's hoping for your extended family.


Very nice! thanks for passing along
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Fri Nov 12, 2021 1:17 pm

Spent better part of mid morning out on the lease piddling with my blind in the floods. ENE wind is rippin today and has tides way up; usually I'd B*tch up a storm but given the magnitude of northWEST winds on tap for late tonight and all day tomorrow, we can use every bit of spare water we can get for now. Was kind of the usual pattern of not seeing any birds until you get to certain areas that are the usual, and sure enough fair many grays were scattered about including some on our lease. With the floods they're mostly using the skinny puddles. Mostly small groups here and there bit did see one nice group of grays, maybe 50+. Nothing to get crazy excited about but nice to have a few around given today's warmth and the promise of tonight's front.

Got roseau situation reined in, finding that it grew 3 to even 4 feet in some sprouts since teal season's breakover routine. Added bushes on our backside and stashed some as-needed roseau in the blind for the crew to stick where they'd like it on arrival in AM.

11-12-2021.jpg



Also the traditional LDWF coastal area + catahoula lake aerial survey is out, excerpted below:

Capture1.JPG



COMMENTS:

Although the 1.3 million ducks estimated on this survey is the highest since 2017, and is up from last November’s record low estimate (855,000), it is still lower than the most recent 5-year (1.5 million) and 10-year (1.7 million) averages. Despite Hurricane Ida’s path through the SE marshes in late-August, both coastal regions showed increased bird numbers from last year. Estimates in SW and SE LA (Figure 2) are up 57% and 19% respectively. The 87,000 birds on Catahoula Lake is a marked increase from last year (12,000), and is above its 5-year (84,000) but below its 10-year (98,000) average.
Though the overall duck estimate was up, this survey marked record low November counts for both gadwall and mottled duck. Unchanged from the September 2021 estimate of 18,000 mottled ducks, this year’s estimate declined from 27,000 last November, 19,000 in 2019, and is down 72% from the long-term November average (64,000). Mottled duck estimates have typically been lower for the September surveys, and counts lower than 18,000 occurred in September 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019. The lowest being 12,000 birds in September 2016. The gadwall estimate (243,000) declined 16% from the 2020 estimate of 288,000 and was 70% below the long term average (818,000). The most recent 5-year average for gadwall is 603,000. More mallards (20,000) were observed than any November since 2014 (also 20,000), and the most recent year to top 20,000 mallards was 49,000 in 2010. Alternatively, fewer scaup have not been estimated since 2015 when only 2,000 were observed.


Looks like there's some birds, though the gadwall number is concerning. Hoping front moves em in.
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Rick » Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:58 pm

Darren wrote:...ENE wind is rippin today...


Pretty wild that it can be like that in the toe and nearly dead calm here in the heel.
Rick
 
Posts: 10608
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:38 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Sat Nov 13, 2021 4:55 am

Rick wrote:
Darren wrote:...ENE wind is rippin today...


Pretty wild that it can be like that in the toe and nearly dead calm here in the heel.


And true to the forecast, absolutely rippin on the camp porch this morning from the NNW

Good luck gang

Capture.JPG
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Rick » Sat Nov 13, 2021 5:21 am

Darren wrote:And true to the forecast, absolutely rippin on the camp porch this morning from the NNW


And nothing, zip, nadda here. Unreal. Hope those winds run 'em all off the big water and sends them to yours.
Rick
 
Posts: 10608
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:38 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Duck Engr » Sat Nov 13, 2021 8:14 am

Darren wrote:
Rick wrote:
Darren wrote:...ENE wind is rippin today...


Pretty wild that it can be like that in the toe and nearly dead calm here in the heel.


And true to the forecast, absolutely rippin on the camp porch this morning from the NNW

Good luck gang

Capture.JPG
Will make for some sporty shooting!
Duck Engr
WFF Administrator
 
Posts: 1356
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:50 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Thu Nov 18, 2021 8:58 am

Unofficial survey results for NE La:

We completed our NE LA aerial survey, and it was the worst since 2005, only 30,000. We usually count that many in the Bunkie/Grand Cote area alone! Observers reported it was very dry and dang few birds. Same in NW LA with only 3,000 counted, which was the lowest since 2016 when only 2.500 were counted.


With a good front coming through right now, hopefully those numbers are moot, but still not promising for sure.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Ericdc » Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:12 am

They will fly over north Louisiana. It's bad dry and not changing anytime soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
User avatar
Ericdc
 
Posts: 2443
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:15 am

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:15 am

Here's info from the official survey:


NE Louisiana
A flight conducted over agricultural areas and managed wetlands in northeast Louisiana also revealed abnormally dry conditions across the region. Consequently, the total duck count (34,000) was the lowest it’s been since another notably dry November when 21,000 were counted in 2005. A comparison to last November’s estimate, which was compromised by an equipment malfunction, would be invalid but this survey represents an 86% decline from the most recent 5-year average of 260,000 from 2015 to 2019. Sixty-two percent of all ducks were observed in the Cheneyville and Bunkie area agricultural fields. Smaller numbers (≤4,000) were counted around the south end of Boeuf WMA and the agricultural fields east of Bonita, Mer Rouge, Hebert, and Russell Sage WMA, and south of Vidalia. The bulk of the dabblers (62%) were gadwall (21,000), followed by pintail (4,000), northern shoveler (4,000), and green-winged teal (3,500). Less than 2,000 mallards were counted. Most available water being shallow, only 31 total divers were observed, all ring-necked ducks.

Geese
Goose numbers in the Northeast were up slightly to 74,000 from the 70,000 counted last November. Though this count also represents a 51% decline from the 5-year average (2015-2019). The largest concentrations of geese were in the agricultural fields east of Bonita & Mer Rouge (38,000), Hebert (2,000), and the fields east of Russell Sage WMA (14,000). Just over 53% of goose species counted were white-fronted geese, with the remainder identifiable only as light geese.


We do have water, I hear, so we'll see. Sounds like it's at a premium, and I ain't mad about that. Too many late seasons water is everywhere, and so the ducks scatter, everywhere, including up in the woods.


Low counts regardless, we've got up to FOUR good fronts showing up on the models to give hope and that's about all you can ask for at this point in the season. Today's is working through now with big winds tomorrow, another on Monday of next week, and showing a good one (for now) for the weekend following T-Giving. Another the week after that.....
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby jrock75 » Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:48 pm

Like you said, that forecast this time of year is as good as we can hope for.
jrock75
 
Posts: 50
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:33 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:43 am

Feel like we've got to kick around the December coastal/Catahoula aerial survey and how poor it was. Can't be surprised given how warm the weather was since the 1st split closed. Heck, 2nd split opener was literal t-shirt and shorts weather, lows in the 70s before the front plowed through.

Capture.JPG


The ugly:

Southwest Louisiana – 874,000
Although not a record low for the region, the only time in the last 20 years with fewer birds in this region was 2004 when 842,000 were estimated. Similarly low estimates include 2003 (878,000), and 2018 (886,000).


Southeast Louisiana - 297,000
This is the lowest December duck estimate for Southeast Louisiana in 20 years. The only December survey that comes close was the 2009 estimate of 555,000. It is 75% below the most recent 5-year average (1.2 million) and 73% below the most recent 10-year average (1.1 million). This is likely due to marsh habitat destruction from Hurricane Ida in late-August as very low bird abundance was observed between transect lines 21-24 ( Figure 3) where the southeast region is typically bolstered by large numbers of ring-necked ducks.


But a bright side, and perhaps contributed to the good hunting I saw over the weekend:

Northeast Louisiana
An additional 118,000 ducks and 171,000 geese were counted during the cruise survey in NE Louisiana. More than 96% of the ducks counted were dabblers with pintail (36%), gadwall (24%), shoveler (16%), and green-winged teal (14%) the most abundant species. The largest concentrations of ducks were found on pumped agricultural fields near Vidalia (28,000) and Bunkie (25,000).


Catahoula Lake – 268,000
The 268,000 birds on Catahoula Lake is 208% higher than the November count (87,000) and 252% higher than last December (76,000) and is the highest December count on Catahoula since 2010 when 282,000 were observed. The



Similar to Louisiana, states to our north have recently reported abnormally warm and dry conditions, with mixed effects on waterfowl abundance and hunting success. Recent estimates from aerial waterfowl surveys in Arkansas are also half their long-term December average, while Missouri duck counts are above both their short and long-term averages.
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby DComeaux » Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:28 am

Just have to hope that the few we get are in your area at the right times.
User avatar
DComeaux
 
Posts: 3845
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:48 pm
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Duck Engr » Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:21 pm

Wow at the catahoula numbers!
Duck Engr
WFF Administrator
 
Posts: 1356
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:50 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:30 am

This morning's GFS showing a fairly significant snow event for ARKY next Sunday. Looks to be some legit hunt weather about anywhere that day

Capture.JPG
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Ducaholic » Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:23 pm

Like it!
Ducaholic
 
Posts: 663
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2014 2:53 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:31 am

A friend that hunts near us in Bunkie area killed this one in Gueydan area this week

todd speck 1.jpg


todd speck 2.jpg


todd speck 3.jpg
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:19 am

Another banded speck a friend shared, this one with a collar I presume outfitted by Paul L.

it was collared south of Lacassine in February of 2021. She then headed north for her annual migration north to nest then returned here to winter.


272676629_4920006318042821_5018911306568715338_n.jpg


map.jpg



Nice to see it was banded/collared here, went north to do its thing, and came back....HERE. With any luck, she showed some young ones the same route while also sharing lots of data with us. Thank you mama speck, truly.
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby DComeaux » Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:52 am

Thanks for sharing.
User avatar
DComeaux
 
Posts: 3845
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:48 pm
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Deltaman » Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:45 am

Very neat to see the actual routes taken, Thank You!!!!
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble. It's what you know for sure, that just ain't so"
Mark Twain
User avatar
Deltaman
 
Posts: 1972
Joined: Wed Nov 06, 2013 8:55 am
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Darren » Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:46 am

Deltaman wrote:Very neat to see the actual routes taken, Thank You!!!!


Most interesting, indeed. How about that westward jaunt, maybe there's a go-to party there they like to stop in on? :lol:
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 3602
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Duck Engr » Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:14 am

Really cool to see that track Darren!
Duck Engr
WFF Administrator
 
Posts: 1356
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:50 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Rick » Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:39 pm

Picked that one up for Paul Sunday. Better to spare them when you see they're collared, but he did miss the transmitter and was quick to return it.
Rick
 
Posts: 10608
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:38 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby ryan_k » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:23 am

Just watched a banding operation on outdoor channel, my son definitely wants to get in on one now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
ryan_k
 
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:03 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby Rick » Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:42 pm

ryan_k wrote:Just watched a banding operation on outdoor channel, my son definitely wants to get in on one now.


I'll PM you the number to text to get put on the volunteer list
Rick
 
Posts: 10608
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:38 pm

Re: Preseason 2021 - 2022

Postby ryan_k » Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:57 pm

Rick wrote:
ryan_k wrote:Just watched a banding operation on outdoor channel, my son definitely wants to get in on one now.


I'll PM you the number to text to get put on the volunteer list
Texted em, haven’t gotten a reply. But hopefully on the list


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
ryan_k
 
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:03 pm

Previous

Return to Darren 2021-2022

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest