Preseason 2022-2023

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:36 am

Ducaholic wrote:46 Here in Central La. this morning. 47 forecasted in the morning. Undoubtedly the nicest stretch of weather here in the last several years for late September early October. Zero chance of rain for the entire 15 day forecast.


Yea I feel for those who went into this change in the weather pattern and upcoming change in the calendar month still needing rain......if you haven't been getting it, October usually is not the month it shows up. But boy is it nice out!
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Ducaholic » Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:42 am

Darren wrote:
Ducaholic wrote:46 Here in Central La. this morning. 47 forecasted in the morning. Undoubtedly the nicest stretch of weather here in the last several years for late September early October. Zero chance of rain for the entire 15 day forecast.


Yea I feel for those who went into this change in the weather pattern and upcoming change in the calendar month still needing rain......if you haven't been getting it, October usually is not the month it shows up. But boy is it nice out!



We in the middle of planned drawdowns in a couple of public spots that I hunt. I hope it continues to be dry all the way until Nov. 1st. That is in fact pretty normal as you said. Swamp/backwater buttonwillow habitat that never goes dry suffers over time. That's been the case at several river lakes and sloughs over the last 10-12 years. This dry period is welcomed. We will get some rain in time. I'm not at all concerned.
Ducaholic
 
Posts: 779
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2014 2:53 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:53 pm

Weather.com forecasts buying in for next weekend cool off as well. Will be watching if others are on board.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Duck Engr » Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:26 pm

Darren wrote:Weather.com forecasts buying in for next weekend cool off as well. Will be watching if others are on board.
Keep ‘em rolling!
Duck Engr
WFF Administrator
 
Posts: 1867
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:50 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:55 pm

Weekend #2 of October, this just fine for my purposes, note coloring is departure from average temps.......the bluer to purple the better (colder).

Friday morning
Fri AM.JPG


Sat morning
Sat AM.JPG



And just for kicks, still looking ahead watching the next one for late next week, and lookin' good so far despite a warmup leading up to it.
Friday Oct 14
Fri the 14th.JPG


Note the latest drought monitor maps, also like where that's at for the flyway, but not too keen on seeing breeding grounds drying up so quickly. Hope the winter and following spring brings the precip for 2023.
Capture.JPG
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Deltaman » Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:16 pm

It's a good start :thumbsup:
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble. It's what you know for sure, that just ain't so"
Mark Twain
User avatar
Deltaman
 
Posts: 2384
Joined: Wed Nov 06, 2013 8:55 am
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Duck Engr » Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:13 pm

Maybe it’s just me but do the fronts seem to be “plunging” more from north to south this year than they have in recent years? Recent years seem to have been sweeping from northwest to southeast
Duck Engr
WFF Administrator
 
Posts: 1867
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:50 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Rick » Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:38 pm

No fan of northwest winds here, so I can hope that's the case. Give me NNE, thank you.
Rick
 
Posts: 11598
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:38 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:57 pm

Duck Engr wrote:Maybe it’s just me but do the fronts seem to be “plunging” more from north to south this year than they have in recent years? Recent years seem to have been sweeping from northwest to southeast


I want to say La Nina winters have higher propensity of generating those NW US/pacific-originating winter systems that sweep like you're talking about, quite a few last year, and as we saw those tend to be milder.

The "arctic plunges" you hear about tend to pack more punch but I've not dug to verify that, though it's a bit more than anecdotal. That Oct 14th system sure has the looks of an early season "plunge," about as potent as you could expect for that calendar date.......so we'll take it for sure. Time will tell but I sure do like regular October fronts and very little rain on the flyway.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Ducaholic » Fri Oct 07, 2022 8:00 am

Rick wrote:No fan of northwest winds here, so I can hope that's the case. Give me NNE, thank you.



Like!
Ducaholic
 
Posts: 779
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2014 2:53 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Fri Oct 07, 2022 8:43 am

This morning's temps, nationwide.

morning temps_n.jpg


Hard freeze warning for N Dakota last night

and here's S Dakota's warnings

Capture.JPG



Yep lookin good!
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby SpinnerMan » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:00 am

Yep. Cooling down a bit. Supposed to be 32 when I hit the tree stand tomorrow morning. Good butchering weather I hope. :thumbsup:

It starts warming up though. Tuesday we are back to a high of 78.
User avatar
SpinnerMan
 
Posts: 2226
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:08 pm
Location: Joliet, IL

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby MARSH BEAR » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:29 am

I am hoping that cold weather will start the teal and Gadwall heading south. I have reports from landowners in Kansas and Missouri that they are bone dry. We have water and mild temps in the marshes of southwest LA hope they stay the entire winter in southwest LA
Youth weekend 4 weeks away, I have 3 to bring this year.
MARSH BEAR
 
Posts: 574
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:31 am

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:29 am

SpinnerMan wrote:Yep. Cooling down a bit. Supposed to be 32 when I hit the tree stand tomorrow morning. Good butchering weather I hope. :thumbsup:

It starts warming up though. Tuesday we are back to a high of 78.


Spent a day in DeKalb area earlier this week, was nice!
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Duck Engr » Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:06 pm

Record low in Bismarck this morning according to the national weather service.
Duck Engr
WFF Administrator
 
Posts: 1867
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:50 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby SpinnerMan » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:23 pm

Darren wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:Yep. Cooling down a bit. Supposed to be 32 when I hit the tree stand tomorrow morning. Good butchering weather I hope. :thumbsup:

It starts warming up though. Tuesday we are back to a high of 78.


Spent a day in DeKalb area earlier this week, was nice!

Never been out that way. It's about 40 miles NW of where I live.
User avatar
SpinnerMan
 
Posts: 2226
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:08 pm
Location: Joliet, IL

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:47 pm

Duck Engr wrote:Record low in Bismarck this morning according to the national weather service.


Not mad about that for sure; though it'll still warm back up plenty this week, still would much rather be seeing these cool/cold spells than just lingering summer heat......would at least appear to show that the normal pattern for late fall into winter is showing some signs of life.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Duck Engr » Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:05 pm

Outfit near Augusta, AR posted today that they have recently picked up some early mallards. Certainly not mad about that.
Duck Engr
WFF Administrator
 
Posts: 1867
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:50 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Rick » Sun Oct 09, 2022 3:13 am

"Hope springs eternal..."

Me, I'm auditioning louder squealer whistles.
Rick
 
Posts: 11598
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:38 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:32 am

Rick wrote:"Hope springs eternal..."

Me, I'm auditioning louder squealer whistles.


:lol:

If all in your blind could run them.......could be handing out Haydel's MP-90's when you stroll into the camp each morning.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:36 am

Delta's October 2022 Update

Note the discussion of how dry missouri is




You'd already heard it here first, but real meteorologists are buying in now too

Capture.JPG
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Rick » Sun Oct 09, 2022 10:33 am

Darren wrote:
Rick wrote:"Hope springs eternal..."

Me, I'm auditioning louder squealer whistles.


:lol:

If all in your blind could run them.......could be handing out Haydel's MP-90's when you stroll into the camp each morning.


There's a stash of new Buck Gardner whistles and lanyards in my blind box that I give kids too young to shoot, so they can "help me call". But I don't know that I trust adults...
Rick
 
Posts: 11598
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:38 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Sun Oct 09, 2022 2:56 pm

With the squealer numbers you've been putting to video recently, a bowl full of whistles at the camp breakfast table would seem appropriate.

Can't fathom that they'll do anything but continue to proliferate that region, sure seem to like the area.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Sun Oct 09, 2022 3:30 pm

Skimming through some fairly recent aerial survey data and noted the following interesting notes given our propensity for tracking weather systems and hoping for brutal cold at the top of the flyway:


November 2016 aerial survey - 3,059,000 total ducks counted in LA

The estimate of 3.06 million ducks from this survey is 2.5 times the 1.21 million from last November and is similar to the 3.12 million estimated in 2014 when early freezing weather in the Flyway pushed large numbers of birds into Louisiana.

The relatively high survey total is surprising given the lack of cold weather typically associated with migration events to this point in the year and recent communications from colleagues in Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Minnesota reporting warm temperatures and delayed migrations.


And most seem to recall that 2014 was an early cold fall with strong hunting off the bat.


November 2019 aerial survey - 1,042,000 total ducks counted in LA (3rd lowest on record at the time)

Despite early blizzard conditions in the Dakotas and freezing temperatures down into the mid-latitudes, there doesn’t appear to have been a major migratory movement into much of coastal Louisiana.
But went on to state....
A recent survey in Missouri showed about 25% above average numbers currently on their surveyed areas.



What's all this mean? Apparently we can get a lot of ducks with mild weather, and just the same can get few ducks with harsh weather.......the birds are gonna bird.


I'm eager to see how the grays turn up late this month and early Nov. Last November's count was a record low for the species at the timeframe, and it was plainly apparent across my salt marsh areas where we are accustomed to seeing plenty.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Ducaholic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:42 am

It's setting up nicely! I recall the early arctic blast we had prior to the 2016 season. We peaked at 3.61 million in the December survey that year but fell to 2.06 million by the time the January survey was completed. My point is it takes sustained weather to keep em here. Hoping for a 2013 type winter and normal rainfall totals in December and January. I like it dry early on!
Ducaholic
 
Posts: 779
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2014 2:53 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:10 am

Ducaholic wrote:It's setting up nicely! I recall the early arctic blast we had prior to the 2016 season. We peaked at 3.61 million in the December survey that year but fell to 2.06 million by the time the January survey was completed. My point is it takes sustained weather to keep em here. Hoping for a 2013 type winter and normal rainfall totals in December and January. I like it dry early on!


Know we've kicked that one around in the past, but 2013 left us wondering "did the grays forget about this area?" coming off of strong '11 and '12 seasons with 153 and 101 grays respectively......2013 harvested 29!! On flip side, was a banner year for mallards.

SE La salt marsh, public!

DSC08309.JPG


Thankfully, the grays returned to us in 2014 and '15 but 2013 sure was bizarre, lot of "30's" for temps on my log that year.
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Ducaholic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:10 am

Pretty!
Ducaholic
 
Posts: 779
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2014 2:53 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:20 am

Circling back on forecasts initially showing some punch late this week........models are largely moderating on them. It's going to cool off but no punch beyond what we've already had, as initially advertised. Early to mid- next week, though, is getting some traction with models and official forecasts. A model run is one thing, but the forecasts appear to be buying it as well.

Case in point, current forecast for next Wednesday Oct 19th here in Baton Rouge, LA, a forecast we don't even see for Thanksgiving or even Christmas at times, Xmas 2021 included.

Capture.JPG
YOU MUST REGISTER TO VIEW THIS IMAGE.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby BGkirk » Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:21 pm

What a strap .. those will never be forgotten


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BGkirk
 
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: Preseason 2022-2023

Postby Darren » Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:06 am

BGkirk wrote:What a strap .. those will never be forgotten
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Maybe what was most impressive beyond the fact that it was SE la salt marsh, not typically known for many mallards, was that this was Day 2 of the season, not like they were January birds that extreme weather pushed to us for late season. My youth hunter killed a greenhead in same blind, well, one island over, the weekend prior.
User avatar
Darren
 
Posts: 4043
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:58 pm
Location: SE La Marsh

PreviousNext

Return to Darren 2022-2023

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron