Preseason 2022-2023

[DComeaux]

Not good. I know that sucks.

[MARSH BEAR]

The Flu is no fun at all, it will kick your arse, hope you feel better soon

[Darren]

The Flu is no fun at all, it will kick your arse, hope you feel better soon

Little better each day thankfully, but very small increments. Today's day 5 of what I read to be an 8 day event. Day 8....opening day.


We'll be ready to ride the chop down to the hole, can leave the splasher butts at the camp:

THURSDAY NIGHT
Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

FRIDAY
Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.
Waves 2 to 3 feet.

FRIDAY NIGHT
North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

SATURDAY
North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A slight
chance of showers in the morning.

SATURDAY NIGHT
North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.

SUNDAY
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to
15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet, subsiding to 2 feet in
the afternoon.

Hoping the north component to NE keeps our water, NW too strong will drain it pretty quick.

[MARSH BEAR]

Darren - our water is way too high - we need the north, northwest winds to push our water out - good luck with the water and your flu

[Darren]

Good news this morning as I've hopefully turned the final corner in this flu battle, and do feel up to heading down to the camp later this morning.

Not so good news? Catahoula and Coastal area aerial survey out.....lowest on record. Last year's was scant on our end, this one's even lower. Can only hope the front brings, since I dont get many blue wings in our area, I'm not as concerned for the push out factor of the big blow.

Capture.JPG

The 802,000 ducks estimated during the November 2022 survey for coastal Louisiana and Catahoula Lake was the lowest since the survey began in 1968 (Figure 1). It is 38% lower than the November 2021 estimate (1.29 million), as well as 28% and 48% lower than the most recent 5-year (1.11 million) and 10-year (1.54 million) averages respectively. Unlike the total estimate, no species-
specific record lows for November were set. Gadwall (+21%), green-wing (+20%), mottled duck (+5%), and scaup (+117%) were the only species whose estimates increased from 2021. Large declines in mallard (-90%), wigeon (-82%), shoveler (-87%), ring-neck (-96%), and blue-wing (-32%) from the November 2021 estimates were observed. Additionally, the blue-winged teal estimate showed a decrease of 24% from this year’s September count (264,000). Not included in the table above, an estimated 139,000 black-bellied whistling ducks were observed, including 127,000 in SW, and 12,000 in SE coastal areas. Also not enumerated in the above table, a 5-mile long raft of scaup numbering roughly 15,000 was seen on Lake Borgne between transects (the Lake Pontchartrain and Borgne scaup survey is not conducted until the months of December and January). Geese are not counted during transect surveys other than opportunistically in the distance and between transect lines. Nevertheless, through the entirety of the survey, only a single flock of 50 white-fronted geese was observed west of Lake Arthur.
Excluding the Catahoula Lake estimate, 85% of ducks counted on the coast were located in the southwest. However, this year’s estimate in SW was 22% lower than the .83 million in November 2021, yet higher than 2018, 2019, and 2020 estimates.

[Duck Engr]

Wow. That’s crazy. We’ve had cold weather AND drought up and down the flyway.

[Rick]

Wow. That’s crazy. We’ve had cold weather AND drought up and down the flyway.

Their transect through our area just misses the great bulk of the bazzilion and twelve birds on Cherry Ridge. But the bug and I just got back from a drive around some mighty barren ag land that used to be top shelf. Reckon "we'll see..."

[Darren]

Survey be darned, I've got camo on this morning after a few days of looking like it may just be for show while sitting at home today. We've got very little wind and its mild out waiting on front line, still two hours to go before we need that breeze so hoping we've got something cookin' at LST 5:51a central. Good luck all

[Darren]

With the weather well above average temps and foggy each day, I'm just glad we are closed and not burning hunt days on stale weather. Looking ahead to next week as the 2nd split opener approaches, though, it looks promising.

Mid week, Wed Dec 14

Wed 12 14.JPG

Models have been pretty consistent with a front for 2nd split opener weekend, but timing and magnitude still TBD. This run is particularly potent all the way to the border up north

Saturday at shooting time

Sat 12 17.JPG

Sun at shooting time

Sun 12 18.JPG

In the meantime it's just sticky and warm around here.

[Deltaman]

Will be glad to see the change, been foggy here each morning since Sunday.

[Darren]

Kind of in tandem with those model runs, this LRC outlook is on board as well. These outlooks of this recurring "cycle" have proven pretty accurate in October and November so far, and given the blasts and warmups its showing, seems pretty plausible and "par" for Louisiana winters.

DECEMBER OUTLOOK - my LRC followers, here it is! Just a reminder, give or take a day or two with storm signals as the cycle speeds up/slows down. Usually most storm signals this time of year come with a severe threat. Temp periods can still fluctuate the other way but the dominate temp trend is noted.
For those wondering what I’m talking about? The Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) is a weather cycle founded by Gary Lezak. Basically what happens each October/November sets the cycle for the rest of the year into next summer. The cycle is different in length each year so it takes close following to figure it out + seasonal variations influence things so it’s a constant learning process.

Really hope that chill hangs on for Christmas.

318466629_700951931389333_8807306194665651955_n.jpg

[Ducaholic]

Hope so to! I had a good first split. Better than most over the last 5 years. For that to continue especially as it gets later the weather needs to become more wintery and sustained all the way to the coast. We can't afford a mass exodus as was the case last year during the two week December warm up. Thanks for the info!

[DComeaux]

If we can have upper 40's to low 50's in the mornings for the remainder of the season I'll be good. I have come to not like cold weather very much. Besides, It's proven to do nothing to improve our hunting.

[Deltaman]

Dave, I second that emotion!

[Ricky Spanish]

Dave, I second that emotion!

I'd like some ice to break in January please

[Ericdc]

:qh:

Dave, I second that emotion!

I'd like some ice to break in January please

December


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Duck Engr]

:qh:

Dave, I second that emotion!

I'd like some ice to break in January please

December


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes. I broke some ice back in November too

[Ricky Spanish]

:qh:

Dave, I second that emotion!

I'd like some ice to break in January please

December


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes. I broke some ice back in November too

Ice cold

20211227_105225.jpg

Them blue shells are good

[Deltaman]

Lee.Ducks.12.13.15.A.JPG

[Ducaholic]

Darren there is a western element to the next split openers weather pattern. You got to do better than that

[Ducaholic]

If we can have upper 40's to low 50's in the mornings for the remainder of the season I'll be good. I have come to not like cold weather very much. Besides, It's proven to do nothing to improve our hunting.

Bah humbug if Eric DC is not fighting ice it's not cold enough for my needs and wants

[Darren]

Would agree that for my marsh hunting, at least, frigid temps has proven to do nothing for us, can remember only very few really cold marsh hunts that were strong. Otherwise, it's a cold boat ride for not much. However, I've got plenty pictures of big straps of grays in just a t-shirt (like Deltaman is modeling for us).

For the field, I'll take some cold (pit blind way more tolerable than marsh ride) so long as it doesn't freeze our water, then it's useless. But on the day that big system arrives.....you better be out there!!!

[Darren]

Last strong marsh hunt I can recall in temps of 20's

January 10, 2015 - 4 of us

(23) 18 grays, 1 wigeon, 1 GW teal, 1 dosgris, 1 mallard, 1 pintail

IMG_0816.JPG

[Darren]

Darren there is a western element to the next split openers weather pattern. You got to do better than that

Nah there's some real deal stuff on the horizon it looks like. See model run snippet I included on Eric's log and see note below from our local met. Looking promising for second half of December, right when we really want/need it. Got no problem with mild right now with us closed.

Capture.JPG

[Ericdc]

If we can have upper 40's to low 50's in the mornings for the remainder of the season I'll be good. I have come to not like cold weather very much. Besides, It's proven to do nothing to improve our hunting.

Bah humbug if Eric DC is not fighting ice it's not cold enough for my needs and wants

I'm fine with losing a few days to ice, we get em before it and on the thaw.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ericdc]

Last strong marsh hunt I can recall in temps of 20's

January 10, 2015 - 4 of us

(23) 18 grays, 1 wigeon, 1 GW teal, 1 dosgris, 1 mallard, 1 pintail

IMG_0816.JPG

Looked back at my log book, we were locked up tight that day.

But on January the 7th, I smashed the mallards in my field and needed more firepower as that front pushed through mid morning. One of the most memorable solo hunts of my life. Decoying sure enough groups of mallards.


Jan 7
Jones
Clear NE 10-15 mph becoming north 20-25, mid 30's
Eric Heath bill Stephen
Heath bill any Stephen left at 10:30 with 7 mallards 2 wigeon
Eric stayed till 1 and got
3 mallards
1 pintail
1 gadwall
1 wigeon


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ducaholic]

If we can have upper 40's to low 50's in the mornings for the remainder of the season I'll be good. I have come to not like cold weather very much. Besides, It's proven to do nothing to improve our hunting.

Bah humbug if Eric DC is not fighting ice it's not cold enough for my needs and wants

I'm fine with losing a few days to ice, we get em before it and on the thaw.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You got a spot for those days. Come on down!

[Ducaholic]

Darren there is a western element to the next split openers weather pattern. You got to do better than that

Nah there's some real deal stuff on the horizon it looks like. See model run snippet I included on Eric's log and see note below from our local met. Looking promising for second half of December, right when we really want/need it. Got no problem with mild right now with us closed.

Capture.JPG

Hope you right. I see decent weather for the early part of the week following the opener but nothing that gets me giddy. Where I hunt we always do better with significant weather. The coast on the other hand has ducks so it’s whatever gets them stirred up and moving that works.

[jrock75]

Last marsh hunt I made in the low 20s was one of the best hunts at our old lease near Anahuac refuge. That morning I had to shelve ice for the first and only time out there. The temps warmed up quickly once the sun came up and the ducks were all over the place. My regular partner cancelled on me the night before so I was going by myself. One of our guides got called into work at 3:00 am to deal with a plant going haywire with the cold temps so I let the random 3 guys he was supposed to take hop in with me. First time I have ever "guided" a hunt though I have always been the unofficial guide dating back to high school. These poor guys couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. I never shot a single mallard out of that blind except for this day. Group of ~50 teal coming in tight at the end presented an opportunity that even they couldn't miss.

January 8, 2017 Hunt.jpg

[Ducaholic]

Like!