Pre Season

Re: Pre Season

Postby Darren » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:39 am

DComeaux wrote:Started seeing post of models showing a system on the Louisiana coast this weekend differing from what the local weather reports were showing. I pulled up the GFS model and It does not show anything in the gulf.

Here's a couple of links, if you're interested. Just hit the play button on the top of the screen once in the link.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&rh=2022082912&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs



I'm all over the tropical stuff, ol Dave. Fret not, for now, nothing doing in Gulf and the next one in Atl is looking like a recurve/fish storm, we'll see about the one behind that one.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Darren » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:42 am

Ducaholic wrote: Today unless driven here by unseasonably cold weather events they simply don't know La. exist.


this one found avoyelles parish last year, along with rest of his crew that stayed out of range
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Rick » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:46 am

DComeaux wrote:Feed lots work.


Would that flooded corn were the only issue...
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Deltaman » Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:52 am

Mallards quit showing up here 8-10 years ago on the Alabama gulf coast. We might see a straggler or two, but no numbers like we used to see.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Darren » Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:58 am

I'm a south Louisiana native, and for the life of me have never known a town of this state named "Welch," yet I constantly see it used in hunting reports and even amongst my peers in printed outdoor media.

I am, however, keenly aware of the teal season powerhouse of the rice fields around Welsh, Louisiana. What am I missing here?

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Re: Pre Season

Postby MARSH BEAR » Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:08 am

Darren, back in the 60's and 70's Welsh was a duck and goose mecca. There were a group of hunters from New Roads that had a camp a few miles south of Welsh, I think all of those hunters are dead now. I had the opportunity to hunt there twice in the 1990's and I was disappointed to see how much the area had lost in waterfowl.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Ducaholic » Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:29 am

DComeaux wrote:The mallard has gone the way of the Canada goose for Louisiana. Feed lots work.


There is truth to the comparison.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Ducaholic » Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:32 am

Darren wrote:
Ducaholic wrote: Today unless driven here by unseasonably cold weather events they simply don't know La. exist.


this one found avoyelles parish last year, along with rest of his crew that stayed out of range
IMG_9199.JPG



I killed 5 last year. In 2000 my group harvested 250+. Coincidentally the weather in 2000 was almost 7 degrees below average. Pretty specimen.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:56 am

Ducaholic wrote:
DComeaux wrote:The mallard has gone the way of the Canada goose for Louisiana. Feed lots work.


There is truth to the comparison.

I found this article by Larry Reynold's from 2019. It talks about the many different factors that come into play. Interesting read.

https://www.louisianasportsman.com/hunting/waterfowl-duck-hunting/ducks/ending-louisianas-duck-detour/

At the same time Louisiana’s natural habit declines, our rice production is also dropping, off 30% to 40% from historical highs. While our production declines, agriculture efficiency has improved. Thirty years ago the rice harvest left approximately 400 pounds per acre; today, it’s about 70 pounds per acre. That means there is 20% less waste grain available for foraging waterfowl.

The feed lots probably did work well for you all, but you got a lot skimpier on the buffet lines.

And while Louisiana agriculture is decreasing, the Midwest’s agricultural production is increasing, primarily due to the rise in popularity of ethanol. The corn-producing acreage in the United States has increased by millions of acres over the past 20 years, a scale so large that waste grain can be found on the ground as late as spring.

“Species like snow geese are actually feeding on corn during their spring migration,” Reynolds said.

They are still eating waste grain in the spring. Think about that.

What I don't think he address which I also think is a problem is Darwin. A duck heading to southern Louisiana would seem more likely to die then one that stays farther north. Less hunters per acre and the season closes earlier. And they already come with a down coat so the cold isn't a problem. Just need food, which there are millions more acres of than their used to be.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Ducaholic » Tue Aug 30, 2022 1:25 pm

A high percentage of waterfowl return to the same breeding grounds year after year. Conventional wisdom has been the same held true for wintering locations as well. Biologists are studying whether food source and water availability can alter wintering migration routes and populations. Are those patterns are merely seasonal adjustments? Or are the adjustments, in fact, long-term changes.

“We do not have any studies that explains the why behind changes in duck demographics,” Reynolds said.


Until they do have a published study stating otherwise I will stick to the man made interference as one of the most prominent reasons fewer ducks are coming to La. along with the lack of winter weather events that force them off and completely away from their man made bed and breakfast areas.
The NAWMP circa 1985 mandated increases in specific habitat for ducks migrating south and for their return trip north in the mid-latitude states. And 25 years of AHM and liberal regs has created a lust for duck hoarding. It's big business! Man has become damn good at it!
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Re: Pre Season

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Aug 30, 2022 1:41 pm

Compounding of factors.

For example, if there is a net change of just 2% in the population per year. After 10 years, your population will be down 18%. After 20 years, down by 1/3rd.

It doesn't take a big effect compounded by time to big change.

Ducaholic wrote:Until they do have a published study stating otherwise I will stick to the man made interference as one of the most prominent reasons fewer ducks are coming to La.

I agree. It's a percent or two per year for the addition of millions of acres of corn. It's a percent or two per year for the reduction in rice production. It's a percent or two per year for habit rehabilitation and expansion up north. It's a percent or two for expanded flooded fields including corn.

5 factors shifting populations 1% per year further north and after 20 years, your population is down to 1/3rd of what it was.

I think it is manmade changes, but many small aggregate effects. More corn up north, more pressure down south, more wetlands in general up north for flood control, more rehab'ed wetlands, more warm water discharges, less harsh winter weather, less habitat down south, less rice down south, ...

The aggregate effect of many factors. Not one single one being the driver, but all contributing small but significant to the populations that stay north living longer, healthier, and more productive than their southern brethren.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Duck Engr » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:59 pm

They heard all of the Cajuns rattling their cages so they updated the graphic

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Re: Pre Season

Postby Duck Engr » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:59 pm

They heard all of the Cajuns rattling their cages so they updated the graphic

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Re: Pre Season

Postby DComeaux » Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:02 pm

Ducaholic wrote:A high percentage of waterfowl return to the same breeding grounds year after year. Conventional wisdom has been the same held true for wintering locations as well. Biologists are studying whether food source and water availability can alter wintering migration routes and populations. Are those patterns are merely seasonal adjustments? Or are the adjustments, in fact, long-term changes.

“We do not have any studies that explains the why behind changes in duck demographics,” Reynolds said.


Until they do have a published study stating otherwise I will stick to the man made interference as one of the most prominent reasons fewer ducks are coming to La. along with the lack of winter weather events that force them off and completely away from their man made bed and breakfast areas.
The NAWMP circa 1985 mandated increases in specific habitat for ducks migrating south and for their return trip north in the mid-latitude states. And 25 years of AHM and liberal regs has created a lust for duck hoarding. It's big business! Man has become damn good at it!
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Re: Pre Season

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:55 pm

Duck Engr wrote:They heard all of the Cajuns rattling their cages so they updated the graphic

OMG were some of the comments stupid.

ALL birds were trapped in west Tennessee and people couldn't understand why birds wintering in west Tennessee weren't wintering in Louisiana :roll:

I couldn't believe all the comments that couldn't comprehend that this was ONLY for birds wintering in west Tennessee.

I'll bet if they trapped birds wintering in north Florida, you wouldn't get any going to LA either. West Tennessee has a very long history as a prime mallard location. They have this big lake created by an earthquake in the early 1800's that's been a famous duck hunting Mecca for a long time.

This returning to the same wintering areas as it seems to show by the birds trapped in west Tennessee and those trapped in Louisiana support my idea that it's different populations of birds are growing or shrinking based on difference in harvest rates or other factors. You all been killing a hell of a lot of birds down south for a long time. Up north, we just don't kill so many. I'd also be curious on the timing of the birds that winter farther north. We may be hunting the same population of birds with the birds that don't migrate all the way south not showing up in numbers until the season is nearly over if not over completely. Up north shoots the birds migrating south during the main part of their season. That's how the seasons are set up largely. The late arrivals are largely after much of the hunting is done because the places most people have access are froze out or the season is completely closed. Darwin would suggest such evolution in the population over many generations.

I'd be very interested to see differences in harvest rates for birds banded during the late season / post season before spring migration based on where they are wintering. Obviously a bird traveling through more states can be harvested in more states, but does the probability of being harvested change at all? Just as obvious, food supplies and winter habitat has dramatically improved up north sending fatter, healthier birds back to the breeding grounds that may be getting there sooner and in better health, it's shorter trip after all, leading them to get the better nesting locations. Lots of things one can imagine that effect the survival and productivity of different populations of ducks. We of course, assume there is just one population in each flyway, but the tracking data doesn't seem to suggests that. It seems to suggest different populations that intermingle on the breeding grounds and if they paired on the wintering grounds, they would retain some distinction in populations from generation to generation.

This stuff fascinates me because it is so complex. It's dynamic. Many things going on simultaneously that vary with time.

It also can be a Rorschach test where you see what you want to see.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Ricky Spanish » Tue Aug 30, 2022 4:34 pm

Ed I think I've killed birds at big lake that were in Illinois yesterday. If I get a little ice ...omg it's like the old days.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby BGkirk » Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:02 pm

Darren wrote:I'm a south Louisiana native, and for the life of me have never known a town of this state named "Welch," yet I constantly see it used in hunting reports and even amongst my peers in printed outdoor media.

I am, however, keenly aware of the teal season powerhouse of the rice fields around Welsh, Louisiana. What am I missing here?

Capture.JPG
Boss hog at LAC club I get to visit with on holidays always mentions Welch… never found that on the map either haha


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Re: Pre Season

Postby MARSH BEAR » Wed Aug 31, 2022 8:16 am

Welsh is located at Exit 54 on I-10, exit and turn south.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Rick » Wed Aug 31, 2022 8:51 am

BGkirk wrote:Boss hog at LAC club I get to visit with on holidays always mentions Welch… never found that on the map either haha


Now I'm gonna have to conspire to get him to say "Welsh" or "Welch" to see if that's so. Unlike "Ioway," I can't say I've ever noticed a local not pronounce Welsh as it's spelled - but, then, I've not noticed a single teal yet this year, either.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Ricky Spanish » Wed Aug 31, 2022 10:49 am

Rick wrote:
BGkirk wrote:Boss hog at LAC club I get to visit with on holidays always mentions Welch… never found that on the map either haha


Now I'm gonna have to conspire to get him to say "Welsh" or "Welch" to see if that's so. Unlike "Ioway," I can't say I've ever noticed a local not pronounce Welsh as it's spelled - but, then, I've not noticed a single teal yet this year, either.

Triggered memories of Welsh Rabbit. (Rarebit)
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Darren » Thu Sep 01, 2022 7:44 am

BGkirk wrote:
Darren wrote:I'm a south Louisiana native, and for the life of me have never known a town of this state named "Welch," yet I constantly see it used in hunting reports and even amongst my peers in printed outdoor media.

I am, however, keenly aware of the teal season powerhouse of the rice fields around Welsh, Louisiana. What am I missing here?

Capture.JPG
Boss hog at LAC club I get to visit with on holidays always mentions Welch… never found that on the map either haha
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Because it doesn't exist
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Re: Pre Season

Postby DComeaux » Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:27 am

I had a FIYA yesterday evening.


20220831_194321.jpg

20220831_194500.jpg



I was readying things for the weekend yesterday evening, ran the motor and worked the trim. Once cooled down I put the motor cover back on and went inside. I was just about to step in the shower when my daughter knocked and yelled at the window saying there was noise coming from the boat. I quickly threw on some clothes and ran out there to hear the trim straining at full up. It quit for a just a moment as I arrived, and I turned and was on my way to get tools to disconnect the battery when it engaged again causing the enclosure to melt. It created such a beautiful blue flame as I was running back to it. The motor again stopped, I blew the flame out and ran to get my tools for the battery.

Luckily my daughter and grandson had stepped outside when they did to notice the pump running. I would suspect that the motor cover would have ignited and I would be very sad today. I have a new trim box on the way to install this evening. I'm strongly considering a total power kill switch at the battery after this incident.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Duck Engr » Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:31 am

Wow DC! That could’ve been terrible.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Deltaman » Thu Sep 01, 2022 12:40 pm

Whew......... Downright scary there Dave, and glad it wasn't worse!
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Re: Pre Season

Postby Rick » Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:31 pm

Be thankful for the timing...
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Re: Pre Season

Postby DComeaux » Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:21 am

Rick wrote:Be thankful for the timing...



That was my first thought. I'll take stuff like this off season and at home without complaint.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby DComeaux » Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:46 am

I got the new trim switch installed last night and it works fine. It came with a large 25 amp fuze block which I was told I could remove and just install the wire direct to the rocker switch. I think I'll try it with this fuse in line, for now.

The install wasn't quick due to stubborn small screws holding the trim assembly to the other control box. I had to drill the screws pass the head and pried the box off. I then used vise grips to spin them out the rest of the way. The spinning was tedious, with only a 1/16th of a turn on one screw which I had to work on from inside the 6' x 6" control box.

The fuse is incased in a box and wrapped with tape. This is how it came in the package. The switch is heavy duty made for winch/hoist applications.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby MARSH BEAR » Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:48 am

I hope the trim motor did not burn up also - good luck
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Re: Pre Season

Postby DComeaux » Fri Sep 02, 2022 11:26 am

MARSH BEAR wrote:I hope the trim motor did not burn up also - good luck


Motor seems fine. Ran it up and down many times and it sounds good.
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Re: Pre Season

Postby DComeaux » Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:46 pm

I made a quick trip in the marsh on Saturday to bail a couple of blinds and deploy some decoys in-between big rain showers, with one bearing down on us, so it was a quick in and out. Saw 3 mottled ducks and that was it. The water is extremely high in our marsh. Not expecting much on Saturday even with "Loaded" reports just to our east.

I had lost one of my speck floaters early last season and found it Saturday on the side of the boat run south of our blind. I had searched for it a couple of times during the season and was always on the lookout. It was on an adventure for a few months and decided it was time to come home.
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