Preseason 2023

[Darren]

Well here's what we're waking up to here in S. La, a full 18 hours ahead of schedule from forecast graphic in previous post. We'll take it! Going to be chilly for tricks n treats day tomorrow, all day and evening

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Pretty dang cold for us at this point on the calendar. GFS continues to show another one late next week around the weekend of West Zone opener for us down here. Glad, however, it'll moderate this weekend coming for the little ones to head out to the blinds. Four wheeler ride is fine and all, but we've got a pretty good boat ride each way.

[Darren]

So far, the kids' post-Halloween health is holding and we're a go for giving the youth hunt a try in the AM on the lease. Local outfitter tells me "seeing some birds" so hoping a few might be in our area.

Headed down this afternoon for what should be a nice camp evening with Johnny plus granny & gramps w/ gumbo on the table, just how November should be. Will grab a few healthy roseaus to take along with us, and barring something unforeseen, we'll go see!

[Duck Engr]

Good luck! Looking forward to the yute report

[Rick]

So far, the kids' post-Halloween health is holding and we're a go for giving the youth hunt a try in the AM on the lease. Local outfitter tells me "seeing some birds" so hoping a few might be in our area.

Headed down this afternoon for what should be a nice camp evening with Johnny plus granny & gramps w/ gumbo on the table, just how November should be. Will grab a few healthy roseaus to take along with us, and barring something unforeseen, we'll go see!

You might want to rethink brushing an ag land blind with Roseau. May very well take hold and piss off your farmer.

[Ericdc]

So far, the kids' post-Halloween health is holding and we're a go for giving the youth hunt a try in the AM on the lease. Local outfitter tells me "seeing some birds" so hoping a few might be in our area.

Headed down this afternoon for what should be a nice camp evening with Johnny plus granny & gramps w/ gumbo on the table, just how November should be. Will grab a few healthy roseaus to take along with us, and barring something unforeseen, we'll go see!

You might want to rethink brushing an ag land blind with Roseau. May very well take hold and piss off your farmer.

I believe they are going to the marsh.


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[Rick]

Must have been reading with my eyes closed.

[Darren]

Must have been reading with my eyes closed.

'Course, we'd have to have water at the farm land to youth hunt there, but even then we'd have been a week early. Still very much TBD on the water situation for EZ opener on Nov 18, but we went south for today.

[Darren]

Probably to no one's surprise, the survey's out and it's ugly:

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Pretty clear that habitat enhancements above us are markedly slowing the progress of migration on front end push of birds, and in some cases largely halting that of some portions of the migrating masses. Fewer birds making it down here early, fewer in total making it here at all. Many still come, and I'm sure we'll get a good few, but last two November survey's have been pretty alarming on their own right, much less coupled with long-term trends. Lack of significant weather other than that Halloween front hasn't done us any favors either, and none on the horizon.

[Deltaman]

OUCH!!! Could the warmer than normal weather, and drought conditions have slowed the migration? I thought we'd gotten favorable reports from the PPR region this year. On a positive note, how bout dem smilin mallards? Long term may not be great, but dammit man, they did something right this year

[Ericdc]

Probably to no one's surprise, the survey's out and it's ugly:

Capture1.JPG

Capture2.JPG

Pretty clear that habitat enhancements above us are markedly slowing the progress of migration on front end push of birds, and in some cases largely halting that of some portions of the migrating masses. Fewer birds making it down here early, fewer in total making it here at all. Many still come, and I'm sure we'll get a good few, but last two November survey's have been pretty alarming on their own right, much less coupled with long-term trends. Lack of significant weather other than that Halloween front hasn't done us any favors either, and none on the horizon.

Northeast Arkansas has had a lot of rain. I would blame our own lack of habitat before blaming folks up north.


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[Ericdc]

It's not a mystery.


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[SpinnerMan]

It's not a mystery.

I think it is a mystery. Is it a linear trend or a cyclical trend or some combination?

I would guess it is mostly cyclical, but with a trend downward over the very long time driven by warmer climates and improved habitats to the north.

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[Ericdc]

Our habitat and carrying capacity continues to get worse each year. Ag land is either tilled to dust or deep water crawfish. Public land habitat management only gets worse each year.

I'm hopeful that when populations rebound we will do better.

Our habitat sucks though, and that's the biggest problem I see.


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[SpinnerMan]

How bad did the habitat suck in 2002 compared to today?

Obviously I don't know, but the vagaries of weather look like the much greater short term driver. Any long term trends over the time period shown are tiny compared to the variations caused by weather. We haven't had a strong persistent winter in quite a few years now. We get periods of very cold, but I can't remember the last time our rivers were froze up solid and we had months of safe ice.

When our rivers freeze up, I head to one spot on the Illinois where the water remains open below the dam and Bald Eagles congregate there and it's not unusual to see 50-100 eagles. Hasn't happened in awhile.

Also when we have safe ice for an extended period, once late goose is over, I used to walk all around our duck club with the chainsaw cutting trees that needed cleared but took a long time to get around by boat. Once frozen, they were just a short walk away. A few hours wondering around with a chainsaw and I could get a lot of work done. Again, haven't really had a lot of opportunities for that.

We've just had warm winters with cold periods and not long hard cold winters in awhile.

This is the kind of crap we have.

Mostly above average. Then one good cold shot, and then it's almost 60. Guess which week they killed the hell out of them at my goose club? Guess when my sister-in-laws family visited

Dec2022.png

Then January was just mild. Not a lot to move birds down when January highs are in the 50's.

Jan2023.jpg

Were haven't been freezing and staying frozen which is not just a problem for us, but everybody south as well.

[Ericdc]

My main point was population trends directly correlate to harvest.

As our habitat has continued to get worse, that's just another problem.


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[Rick]

I would blame our own lack of habitat before blaming folks up north.

Absolutely. Less and less reason for them to come here for the past couple decades. This year just happens to be the blue ribbon winner.

[5 stand]

We're losing habitat around here, you guys aren't alone... Heard we lost 30,000 acres of cropland that's been turned into cattle pasture? But I couldn't prove that...

[Darren]

Hmmmm, posted yesterday

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[DComeaux]

Hmmmm, posted yesterday

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Means nothing. I see photos from local photographers that frequent that place every year that show large concentrations of waterfowl. The 100K they mention is a very low number for that place. I think the USFWS is under pressure to find ducks.

[Darren]

Hmmmm, posted yesterday

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Means nothing. I see photos from local photographers that frequent that place every year that show large concentrations of waterfowl. The 100K they mention is a very low number for that place. I think the USFWS is under pressure to find ducks.

I likewise thought 100K seemed arbitrarily hyped, and if anything, lower than long time averages.

[Darren]

Well but then they also said this:

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"down a bit this year" lol