State of the Season

[Darren]

Came across info below on instagram and thought it very telling of where we’ve been so far this season and currently sitting. Only wish I also had weather data to pair with it but haven’t taken a deep dive into that yet, though most are keenly aware it’s just been flat mild from north to south on the MS Flyway as no cold push seems to linger, snow cover is way down, and north winds quickly shift to otherwise behind anemic frontal systems.

Couple that with poor habitat down on Arky and La ends of flyway (especially here in La) and it’s a multi-whammy type deal going on this season with not a whole lot of confidence a significant change may be on the horizon. Winter may come, but likely too late, after the end of January.

IMG_3184.png

Reports from my lease are worst ever, reports from others in the region are generally terrible across the board, as on top of the benign weather, we’ve got no SAV/food for the birds given summer drought salinity. That’s of course a cruel occurrence given most are generally celebrating a year without a hurricane, but here we are.

[Ducaholic]

It's been compounding for well over a decade with this season being the worst. Ducks and geese no longer have to come to La. to winter in numbers counting in the millions. That's been the case for a long while now. The lack of weather and water shows just how adaptative they can be. That bodes well for the future if winter ever does return going forward in time.

[Duck Engr]

Listened to a wildlife biologist, can’t recall his name, on “the standard sportsman” podcast that suspects we’re significantly over counting breeding pairs, and laid out his reasoning why. Mallard counts are significantly down from 10 year average from Louisiana all the way to Iowa. I can’t find data for any states farther north, so they may all be up there. Afraid this season has likely shown us what it is, as the old timers all tell me if they aren’t here by Christmas they ain’t coming. But, if the old timers have that knowledge, then that tells me there have been previous years where they “didn’t come”.

[Rick]

Mallard counts are significantly down from 10 year average from Louisiana all the way to Iowa. I can’t find data for any states farther north, so they may all be up there. Afraid this season has likely shown us what it is, as the old timers all tell me if they aren’t here by Christmas they ain’t coming. But, if the old timers have that knowledge, then that tells me there have been previous years where they “didn’t come”.

Couple things:

I'm among those strongly suspecting that a great many Louisiana mallards were of a photo period migrating subset that's been whittled down to the nub by a number of factors, and without them we're screwed unless severe weather drive some of the much larger subset disinclined to move until forced to.

And Sweet Chereaux's 85yr-old marsh man uncle, Franklin, has told me of a year in the '50s when mallards were so scarce that if a trapper saw one, he started looking for someone to tell. That year was more anomaly than trend but offers a glimmer of hope for those inclined to grasp...

[Duck Engr]

I certainly appreciate that insight Rick, and am inclined to agree with your theory on photo migrators.

[DComeaux]

Listened to a wildlife biologist, can’t recall his name, on “the standard sportsman” podcast that suspects we’re significantly over counting breeding pairs, and laid out his reasoning why. Mallard counts are significantly down from 10 year average from Louisiana all the way to Iowa. I can’t find data for any states farther north, so they may all be up there. Afraid this season has likely shown us what it is, as the old timers all tell me if they aren’t here by Christmas they ain’t coming. But, if the old timers have that knowledge, then that tells me there have been previous years where they “didn’t come”.

I think this may be that podcast. Very interesting and leaning towards what I believe.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-standard-sportsman/id1702195856?i=1000638545911

[Duck Engr]

Yep that’s the one. Dave Rave is the fellas name. Thanks DC!

[DComeaux]

Yep that’s the one. Dave Rave is the fellas name. Thanks DC!

Every duck hunter and wildlife biologist should listen to this podcast.

[5 stand]

I tried to listen to it, but in the first 20 minutes they get to wrapped up in Mallard hens, and they lost me... If shooting hens was an issue, in my mind, why do we shoot green winged teal hens, why do we shoot gadwall hens? We've been shooting those for so long there shouldn't be any gadwall or teal left?

I know this is nitpicking, but if you're serious about getting waterfowlers on board, cut the time down, hit the high points, have your ducks in a row with some good numbers, not speculation or memory.... Dang it I bet that reads bad, sorry guys... Hopefully others have a longer attention span then I do...

[Rick]

I tried to listen to it, but in the first 20 minutes they get to wrapped up in Mallard hens, and they lost me... If shooting hens was an issue, in my mind, why do we shoot green winged teal hens, why do we shoot gadwall hens? We've been shooting those for so long there shouldn't be any gadwall or teal left?

I know this is nitpicking, but if you're serious about getting waterfowlers on board, cut the time down, hit the high points, have your ducks in a row with some good numbers, not speculation or memory.... Dang it I bet that reads bad, sorry guys... Hopefully others have a longer attention span then I do...

I was long of similar bent, but getting involved in Paul Link's Coastal Mallard study efforts changed my mind. When our first two mallard captures ran 15 and 16 to 1, drakes to hens with no immatures in those samples, I found myself taking the old "dead hens don't lay eggs." - or lead their young to Louisiana - saw more seriously. Gadwall almost never show up under the rocket nets, but if the green-wing teal have shown anything remotely approaching those disparities to date, I've somehow missed it in the huge samplings of those I've been party to.

So I believe it a mistake to take not just a "ducks is ducks" approach to management, but the "mallards are mallards" approach the USFWS has so long adhered to. Not going to condemn anyone for shooting Susies as long as it's legal, but I now try not to and encourage my hunter to "Shoot the bright ones."

[5 stand]

I tried to listen to it, but in the first 20 minutes they get to wrapped up in Mallard hens, and they lost me... If shooting hens was an issue, in my mind, why do we shoot green winged teal hens, why do we shoot gadwall hens? We've been shooting those for so long there shouldn't be any gadwall or teal left?

I know this is nitpicking, but if you're serious about getting waterfowlers on board, cut the time down, hit the high points, have your ducks in a row with some good numbers, not speculation or memory.... Dang it I bet that reads bad, sorry guys... Hopefully others have a longer attention span then I do...

I was long of similar bent, but getting involved in Paul Link's Coastal Mallard study efforts changed my mind. When our first two mallard captures ran 15 and 16 to 1, drakes to hens with no immatures in those samples, I found myself taking the old "dead hens don't lay eggs." - or lead their young to Louisiana - saw more seriously. Gadwall almost never show up under the rocket nets, but if the green-wing teal have shown anything remotely approaching those disparities to date, I've somehow missed it in the huge samplings of those I've been party to.

So I believe it a mistake to take not just a "ducks is ducks" approach to management, but the "mallards are mallards" approach the USFWS has so long adhered to. Not going to condemn anyone for shooting Susies as long as it's legal, but I try not to and encourage my hunter to "Shoot the bright ones."

I understand Rick, I see that Drake to hen ratio in my binoculars(weekly)... I can guarantee you it's easier to shoot all green, then it would be if I could kill 5 Mallard hens... I also shoot the flashy ducks (just like you encourage)... Probably was just in the wrong mindset to listen to a hour and some change of the podcast... Glad you were able to hang in there... Hope that's the fix (no more hens)...
I mentioned it earlier this year about (South Dakota) drain tile, they put it in the fall, and I get to see the spider web fields every year... I'm a habitat guy, I believe that would fix most of our woes... but I doubt more and better habitat is in our future? Sorry about being a Debbie Downer, and Darren you're the moderator, feel free to hit that delete button buddy...

[Duck Engr]

I tried to listen to it, but in the first 20 minutes they get to wrapped up in Mallard hens, and they lost me... If shooting hens was an issue, in my mind, why do we shoot green winged teal hens, why do we shoot gadwall hens? We've been shooting those for so long there shouldn't be any gadwall or teal left?

I know this is nitpicking, but if you're serious about getting waterfowlers on board, cut the time down, hit the high points, have your ducks in a row with some good numbers, not speculation or memory.... Dang it I bet that reads bad, sorry guys... Hopefully others have a longer attention span then I do...

I was long of similar bent, but getting involved in Paul Link's Coastal Mallard study efforts changed my mind. When our first two mallard captures ran 15 and 16 to 1, drakes to hens with no immatures in those samples, I found myself taking the old "dead hens don't lay eggs." - or lead their young to Louisiana - saw more seriously. Gadwall almost never show up under the rocket nets, but if the green-wing teal have shown anything remotely approaching those disparities to date, I've somehow missed it in the huge samplings of those I've been party to.

So I believe it a mistake to take not just a "ducks is ducks" approach to management, but the "mallards are mallards" approach the USFWS has so long adhered to. Not going to condemn anyone for shooting Susies as long as it's legal, but I try not to and encourage my hunter to "Shoot the bright ones."

I understand Rick, I see that Drake to hen ratio in my binoculars(weekly)... I can guarantee you it's easier to shoot all green, then it would be if I could kill 5 Mallard hens... I also shoot the flashy ducks (just like you encourage)... Probably was just in the wrong mindset to listen to a hour and some change of the podcast... Glad you were able to hang in there... Hope that's the fix (no more hens)...
I mentioned it earlier this year about (South Dakota) drain tile, they put it in the fall, and I get to see the spider web fields every year... I'm a habitat guy, I believe that would fix most of our woes... but I doubt more and better habitat is in our future? Sorry about being a Debbie Downer, and Darren you're the moderator, feel free to hit that delete button buddy...

This is good discourse and what I think hunters should be engaging in.

Can’t blame you for not making it through the podcast. It can be redundant and they have a lot of advertisements in there.

[5 stand]

I sure hope Paul (or someone else) can come up with something conclusive...

[Duck Engr]

I’d be very interested to know the mortality distribution of transmittered birds. How many lost to hunting, predators while nesting, the elements (bad storm, late freeze, etc).

[5 stand]

There are a lot of numbers that I would like to know, always thought there were a lot smarter people out there, that would be trying to find them, and they probably are (hopefully)...
"Paper ducks"is very interesting to me, if they are off on the paper ducks, then it could turn compensatory into cumulative (I think those terms are right)... Deep deep down, I don't think 6/60 has been the right approach for this long (20 plus years)?
We don't have numbers during covid, a combination of a lot of little things are adding up (to less ducks) and I believe it to be Nationwide not just Louisiana (the South)...

[5 stand]

I’d be very interested to know the mortality distribution of transmittered birds. How many lost to hunting, predators while nesting, the elements (bad storm, late freeze, etc).

Few years ago, I remember a story about Paul losing several Mallard hens(to predators), because they nested in road ditches, small areas, rather than big fields and wonder if that turned out to be the case year after year?

[5 stand]

I tried to listen to it, but in the first 20 minutes they get to wrapped up in Mallard hens, and they lost me... If shooting hens was an issue, in my mind, why do we shoot green winged teal hens, why do we shoot gadwall hens? We've been shooting those for so long there shouldn't be any gadwall or teal left?

I know this is nitpicking, but if you're serious about getting waterfowlers on board, cut the time down, hit the high points, have your ducks in a row with some good numbers, not speculation or memory.... Dang it I bet that reads bad, sorry guys... Hopefully others have a longer attention span then I do...

I was long of similar bent, but getting involved in Paul Link's Coastal Mallard study efforts changed my mind. When our first two mallard captures ran 15 and 16 to 1, drakes to hens with no immatures in those samples, I found myself taking the old "dead hens don't lay eggs." - or lead their young to Louisiana - saw more seriously. Gadwall almost never show up under the rocket nets, but if the green-wing teal have shown anything remotely approaching those disparities to date, I've somehow missed it in the huge samplings of those I've been party to.

So I believe it a mistake to take not just a "ducks is ducks" approach to management, but the "mallards are mallards" approach the USFWS has so long adhered to. Not going to condemn anyone for shooting Susies as long as it's legal, but I now try not to and encourage my hunter to "Shoot the bright ones."

If I remember correctly, the head biologist with Delta waterfowl was talking about the Drake to hen ratio in the pintail population also, and it was very alarming, hopefully they can figure something out...

[DComeaux]

I tried to listen to it, but in the first 20 minutes they get to wrapped up in Mallard hens, and they lost me... If shooting hens was an issue, in my mind, why do we shoot green winged teal hens, why do we shoot gadwall hens? We've been shooting those for so long there shouldn't be any gadwall or teal left?

I know this is nitpicking, but if you're serious about getting waterfowlers on board, cut the time down, hit the high points, have your ducks in a row with some good numbers, not speculation or memory.... Dang it I bet that reads bad, sorry guys... Hopefully others have a longer attention span then I do...

You can drag the recording forward and past the "nitpicking". It seems the mallard has always been used as a base for waterfowl population numbers or health and I feel the same as you do.

[5 stand]

I tried to listen to it, but in the first 20 minutes they get to wrapped up in Mallard hens, and they lost me... If shooting hens was an issue, in my mind, why do we shoot green winged teal hens, why do we shoot gadwall hens? We've been shooting those for so long there shouldn't be any gadwall or teal left?

I know this is nitpicking, but if you're serious about getting waterfowlers on board, cut the time down, hit the high points, have your ducks in a row with some good numbers, not speculation or memory.... Dang it I bet that reads bad, sorry guys... Hopefully others have a longer attention span then I do...

You can drag the recording forward and past the "nitpicking".

Thank you DC, I did that, and I'm sure glad I did...
I am also of the opinion, that every waterfowler should listen to it... Please take the time to do it, even if it's in two or three different stents...
Where are these paper ducks?

[BigHutch]

I agree wholeheartedly that every real duck hunter should listen to the podcast. It is eye opening because it is coming from someone that was once in the “inner circle”. Every specklebelly goose hunter should also listen to the podcast about the concerns on what the early Arkansas speck season is doing to specklebelly geese and mallards in Arkansas.

I have been concerned for the last 10-15 years that ducks and now specklebelly geese are no longer coming to Louisiana. I was ridiculed by the “elites”. Now Arkansas folks are concerned the same thing is happening there.

I still think the numbers are bogus and the overestimated numbers keep getting further from the “real” numbers every year. You can call it a magnified rounding error that gets worse each year.

In my almost 30 years of statistically estimating timber volumes and values (cruising timber), I have never seen a stratified timber cruise produce even remotely accurate results. I have seen five large timber landowners be forced to sell their land holdings at fire sale prices and lose their shirts because their original stratified cruise greatly overestimated the timber volumes and values. Once they plugged their inventory numbers into growth and yield models the error became like a snowball rolling down a hill. Each year the error got larger.

The mechanism used to “count” the ducks, expand the transect counts to come up with the population numbers, and the use of the adaptive harvest management model is the wildlife equivalent of a stratified cruise. As a past reference to check for the accuracy of the system just look at historical pintail management and current populations …

Rick, you make a great point about the minuscule remainder of the photo migrating mallard population.

Just my 2 cents.

Merry Christmas Everyone!!
Robbie aka Big Hutch

[Ducaholic]

Great Comments in this thread!

[SpinnerMan]

When our first two mallard captures ran 15 and 16 to 1, drakes to hens with no immatures in those samples, I found myself taking the old "dead hens don't lay eggs." - or lead their young to Louisiana - saw more seriously.

I always find that interesting. What drives the drakes to travel further south. I keep track of hen and drake in my harvest records. I shoot the bright ones first and sometimes don't shoot the hens, sometimes. The harvest ratio is 2 drakes per hen. Which puts the numbers closer to the 1 to 1 since we shoot the drakes first and sometimes don't shoot the hens. My guess is the ratio is about 3 drakes for every 2 hens.

I'm among those strongly suspecting that a great many Louisiana mallards were of a photo period migrating subset that's been whittled down to the nub by a number of factors

I believe that is very similar to what happened back where I grew up. We don't distinguish subpopulations of ducks. The long seasons and high limits wiped out the local birds.

I've mentioned this a number of times. The mallards that migrated furthest the earliest are hunted from September through the end of January. On top of that, they go to the part of the country with the highest number of hunters. The mallards that don't go south unless forced to do so by terrible weather, yes they are hunted starting at the same time, but their season is over most years by mid to late December and they never get to the parts of the country with the highest numbers of hunters. You would expect those mallards that head to southern LA to suffer the highest mortality rates and those that never venture further south than the middle of the country to suffer the lowest mortality rates. Small differences compounded over a couple decades, this can result in dramatic population shifts.

Simple math. 2 million ducks. 1 million head all the way to southern LA. 1 million stay north. Managed perfectly so there are always 2 million ducks. If the ducks heading south are overharvested by just 2%, after 30 years, their numbers will be cut by nearly 50% while the population up north will increase by nearly 50%. So still 2 million ducks. If the overharvest were 5%, the numbers of southern mallards would be cut by 75% after 30 years. It does seem like that is a big part of what is going on. Certain subpopulations are being way overharvested but others are being under harvested. The total is not affected much but the distribution over time is impacted in a huge way.

Why the 15 to 1 ratio? You all shot most of the hens that migrate far to the south. The drakes just range much more widely and less reliable in terms of wintering in the same areas. Not sure what else would explain that and the much closer to parity that I've seen over 20 years.

You all need to shorten your season for mallards if you want mallards and you all need us to increase our season to make room for your numbers to grow. The opposite of what has happened over the last 30 years or so. I'll be back in Illinois in January to goose hunt. If we get any kind of weather, I expect to see huge numbers of mallards and there will be nothing I can do about it as our season closes today I believe and from what I understand the mallards haven't showed up in force yet. We just haven't had the kind of weather needed to move them south which for you all is still probably 800 miles too far north. Think about that, if we are still waiting for them, that's definitely a problem for you all. And most winters for some time, we don't see the big push of ducks until very late in the season or after the season. But once they do arrive, they don't head further south.

[Duck Engr]

Yeah I agree with that Spinner. It’s exacerbated in warm winters like this, but the issue still remains. Problem is, they can’t ask every duck they count in the spring if they plan to be a calendar duck or a weather duck. I think they’re going to have to institute some kind of flyway-wide midwinter survey, conducted over the same few days up and down the flyway, to get an accurate distribution of “calendar migrators” vs weather migrators, so they can try to determine what population each state is hunting. That’ll take several years, as they’ll need to establish some kind of reference point.

[5 stand]

Kind of sort of going along with what spinner said... How many of the ducks that they are killing in Canada in August? & September are also calendar migrators (Louisiana the South ducks)... So many little things that could add up to a huge number?


Maybe one of the reasons the South still has gadwall and teal, nobody shoots them in the fields of the Canada and Prairie pothole region, they have to kill them over water, and not many water hunt?

[Darren]

Glad to see so much (constructive) chatter in here, that’s what it was for!

I actually did listen to that podcast on the way up to the farm this morning and had a lot of agreement with their discussion. As for the mallard hen matter, I also had Rick’s past comments of what he’s seen while banding in mind. So with regard to the sex ratios of other species….I can tell you in the marsh I’m seeing good many gadwall hens in our harvest of all recent seasons, and since green wings came up, I’m seeing plenty green wing hens in my field hunts and marsh hunts this season. Heck, if anything my gut recollection on the green wings this season has been more hens in hand than drakes, today included.

[Duck Engr]

We passed on multiple all hen flocks of greenwings last year opener.

I wonder if mallard hen nesting habits make them more susceptible to predators than say green wings or gadwall. Have no clue if they even differ, just a thought.

[5 stand]

Let's get back on track... It's just the weather!!! It's going to be ok...

Guru on the fuge has spoken, "it is what it is"...

That's supposed to be humor, but it's probably true?

[DComeaux]

The lack of ducks seems to be extending up the flyway now and it's becoming concerning to those I'll call the have had. The Sothern part of the U.S (have nots) have voiced their concern for a while now. When this issue reaches way further north it may be too late for the fowl. The boiling frog scenario.

[5 stand]

"The boiling frog scenario"

That frog you speak of, he might be boiling in the south,,, fairly quick... The water is getting warmer...

[DComeaux]

If I would get sit in a blind down here during the season and kill ducks consistently I too would not see an issue. When those pockets of birds dry up then we will have a pretty serious problem. I don't want to see it get to that level. I've said this on many post over the years.

I can understand weather or lack there of not forcing the birds south and I do keep that in mind. I would sure like to see actual weather conditions at key locations for the past 40 years to the north for comparison. It would be a daunting task, one I wouldn't mind doing if I had the time and resources to do so.

If the ducks are not coming south, how many states north of Louisiana have doubled, tripled, or more in their December counts?

This is the December surveys complied in the years shown. Thank you Larry Reynolds.

We've gone from 6643000 in 1970 to 1132000 in 2023. The pasting of the info didn't come out as it should but I think you can figure it out. I tried to make some adjustments.

December averages


SW SE Cat Tot.
2009 1536000 555000 69000 2160000
2007 1065000 795000 142000 2002000
2006 1737000 925000 206000 2,868,000
2005 910000 1507000 178000 2,595,000
2004 842000 791000 26,000 1,659,000
2003 878,000 1,395,000 43,000 2,316,000
2002 997,000 903,000 118,000 2,018,000
Avg 1,218,000 914,600 124,200 2,256,800

Mall Mott Gad Wig GWT BWT Shov Pint Scaup Ring Can
Total
1969 476000 83000 1519000 956000 745000 32000 185000 630000 750000 42000 6000 5424000 5.4
1970 532000 78000 1412000 1062000 1275000 48000 213000 1213000 751000 49000 10000 6643000 6.6
1971 396000 69000 923000 474000 586000 81000 126000 396000 866000 46000 3963000
1972 342000 58000 1103000 637000 708000 160000 199000 459000 660000 75000 0 4401000
1973 208000 66000 1090000 582000 989000 359000 195000 571000 61000 64000 4185000
1974 0
1975 452000 58000 1596000 448000 1108000 291000 234000 519000 20000 13000 37000 4776000
1976 837000 68000 1244000 404000 1498000 208000 206000 953000 49000 122000 31000 5620000
1977 353000 43000 704000 163000 212000 43000 114000 500000 120000 54000 9000 2315000 2.3
1978 405000 47000 520000 65000 302000 22000 39000 273000 51000 6000 49000 1779000 1.8
1979 475000 37000 928000 186000 418000 20000 74000 546000 67000 10000 2761000 2.8
1980 404000 42000 586000 57000 676000 30000 81000 500000 30000 5000 74000 2485000 2.5
1981 229000 27000 808000 230000 349000 47000 103000 493000 175000 41000 9000 2511000 2.5
1982 179000 35000 539000 123000 210000 36000 61000 227000 49000 16000 8000 1483000 1.5
1983 305000 62000 534000 99000 266000 23000 63000 465000 10000 48000 36000 1911000 1.9
1984 304000 36000 893000 87000 167000 109000 54000 277000 9000 39000 23000 1998000 2.0
1985 254000 46000 480000 111000 152000 145000 107000 285000 191000 137000 41000 1949000 1.9
1986
1987 452000 89000 660000 136000 331000 116000 85000 390000 34000 134000 34000 2461000 2.5
1988 443000 97000 1093000 189000 621000 172000 140000 450000 111000 162000 107000 3585000 3.6
1989
1990 472000 97000 713000 269000 763000 80000 117000 484000 77000 69000 101000 3242000 3.2
1991
1992
1993 461000 143000 1334000 180000 779000 196000 154000 308000 57000 133000 15000 3760000 3.8
1994 548000 148000 1256000 323000 1066000 274000 176000 386000 64000 128000 77000 4446000 4.4
1995 727000 143000 1885000 267000 931000 196000 173000 1019000 22000 87000 78000 5528000 5.5
1996
1997
1998 357000 52000 839000 189000 494000 228000 138000 163000 58000 90000 46000 2654000 2.7
1999 524000 78000 1964000 360000 934000 112000 146000 508000 14000 157000 22000 4819000 4.8
2000 131000 62000 1166000 194000 331000 66000 167000 289000 132000 421000 65000 3024000 3.0
2001 104000 47000 580000 92000 245000 56000 68000 66000 43000 241000 12000 1554000 1.6
2002 243000 56000 762000 32000 222000 83000 77000 73000 111000 278000 81000 2018000 2.0
2003 234000 119000 792000 61000 386000 74000 26000 158000 20000 411000 35000 2316000 2.3
2004 118000 63000 717000 7000 354000 35000 26000 155000 23000 147000 14000 1659000
2005 205000 48000 880000 22000 311000 82000 221000 391000 89000 240000 107000 2596000
2006 112000 70000 1002000 63000 389000 305000 238000 159000 26000 448000 56000 2868000
2007 128000 71000 433000 30000 239000 235000 108000 398000 12000 290000 58000 2002000
2008
2009 109000 103000 656000 31000 404000 146000 141000 308000 74000 147000 41000 2160000
2010 102000 63000 793000 16000 388000 75000 118000 165000 73000 302000 76000 2171000
2011 97000 64000 802000 34000 407000 100000 183000 233000 200000 240000 63000 2423000
2012 81000 53000 758000 24000 255000 34000 130000 219000 156000 294000 57000 2061000
2013 94000 46000 749000 13000 285000 39000 188000 194000 47000 233000 66000 1954000
2014 113000 51000 1342000 19000 509000 63000 218000 108000 176000 551000 54000 3204000
2015 51000 36000 807000 15000 303000 112000 151000 46000 183000 847000 86000 2637000
2016 196000 35000 1008000 8000 805000 95000 150000 179000 65000 765000 300000 3606000
2017 94000 19000 665000 12000 364000 122000 146000 483000 106000 797000 207000 3015000
2018 78000 37000 357000 6000 181000 133000 102000 117000 117000 591000 220000 1939000
2019 88000 35000 944000 27000 154000 150000 199000 280000 88000 488000 118000 2571000
2020

Avg 277868 63842 889184 120842 468658 114553 129526 335974 77605 247892 66395 2786176 2.8
Min 104000 27000 480000 7000 152000 20000 26000 66000 9000 5000 8000 1483000
Max 727000 148000 1964000 360000 1066000 274000 176000 1019000 191000 421000 107000 5528000
STDEV 157950 37891 409389 93990 277314 73959 47158 209227 52300 118236 31642 1093699

Estimate
1977 2.3
1978 1.8
1979 2.8
1980 2.5
1981 2.5
1982 1.5
1983 1.9
1984 2.0
1985 1.9

1987 2.5
1988 3.6

1990 3.2


1993 3.8
1994 4.4
1995 5.5


1998 2.7
1999 4.8
2000 3.0
2001 1.6
2002 2.0
2003 2.3
2004 1.7

These are the states December surveys for this year.

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