Post Season Things

[DComeaux]

The pie comparison is pretty good way to put it for sure; only argument I'm not too high on is the shift westward. Texas is complaining too, Oklahoma had a rough season last year as I understand it as well.

I agree with you on the shift theory. I've been saying it for some time now, I believe we just don't have enough ducks to go around and the enhanced feed and managed properties to the north are holding the majority of those. I still haven't seen proof of any one area to our north that has gained the numbers we're missing.

[Darren]

Caught up yesterday with a North La buddy that's in a great club in Arkansas, shared our thoughts on this past season.

He noted that amongst his small sub-crew (not the entire club), with two weeks left to go in the whole season, they didn't have 100 ducks on the log.

But said they stacked like crazy those last two weeks. Unlike previous seasons, water was not an issue, they had backwater from river flooding from jump, just no birds.

FWIW

[Ducaholic]

Not much you can do but tip your hat to the waterfowl gurus to the north. They have figured out the magic pill that holds even the photo migrators further north than ever. That says nothing of the mallards that don't make it here any longer.

It shouldn't take that kind of weather to push GWT into La. in big numbers but sadly that the case today.

[SpinnerMan]

It shouldn't take that kind of weather to push GWT into La. in big numbers but sadly that the case today.

This was interesting as I know you get a lot of GWT and I saw quite a few GWT in southern Florida when I was out walking around some areas that hold waterfowl. Also, it's not unusual for us to see some GWT late in the season in northern Illinois. There are plenty GWT that are hardy and others that head to the tropics. Species like that interest me that have such a wide winter range.

So I went onto the birding site I started using. It has many cool features that allow you to visualize the data they collect. These folks are serious about their data collection and it is done quite scientifically. It's pretty reliable data. So I looked at the reported GWT information month by month. Also looked at December over all time, the last 10 years, and this past December.

A couple things I found interesting. Even as warm as it was this year, there seemed to be no significant shift in their December distribution. Same for the distribution in December over the last 10 years compared with December for all years. Except when I looked at extreme Southern Louisiana which in the all years data was in the highest or near highest category. Over the last 10 years, it dropped dramatically while everywhere else didn't seem to change much.

It might not be so much a problem of them stopping short as it seemed like plenty of them continue to head to points much further south as always. It looks more like a local problem than a general problem of them not heading south.

Very interesting site.

https://ebird.org/map

[Ducaholic]

No doubt La. habitat is not what it once was but there is still plenty of good enough stuff out there to host more birds than are actually getting here GWT included. Interesting stuff Spinnerman

[SpinnerMan]

No doubt La. habitat is not what it once was but there is still plenty of good enough stuff out there to host more birds than are actually getting here GWT included. Interesting stuff Spinnerman

One of the things that I'm curious about and have no clue about. So you have one GWT that spends the winter in Illinois and another that heads to South America. They head back north. Next year does the one that stayed in Illinois last year stay in Illinois and the one that went to South America return to South America or might they both end up in Mexico.

If they are quite loyal to their wintering grounds, local hunting pressure could have a big effect on population over time. If they are not loyal at all, then local pressure wouldn't matter at all. My guess is somewhere in between, but I have no idea. It's probably fairly species dependent. Is it age dependent, sex dependent? How random is it and how individual bird specific it is. If the young of the year happened to follow one that goes to Mexico, are they listening to Mariachis in the winter for the rest of their life or might they be eating rice in Arkansas next winter.

I've always found it interest. I get the flyways, but what determines how far down they go? Why do some fly to Cuba and some stop in Maryland?

Mallards seem fairly loyal to their wintering grounds which I suspect is why with the 60 day 4 bird limit being in place for so long that those that fly furthest south get shot up until the end of January and have declined over time. While those that stay north and have the lowest pressure and are hunted for a month less would be growing over time when the overall population is fairly stable. Changes in local habitat would have the same impact on birds loyal to their wintering grounds. Better habitat, both healthier birds and ones that get less shot up as they don't have to range so far to find their needs. Poor habitat, and the birds work harder to meet their needs and this makes them more vulnerable to hunters.

[Ducaholic]

All I know for certain is far fewer birds are making their way here. My primary guess as to the reason why is simply going to be that they don't have to. With each passing year the more that don't the more that won't. Get here that is

[jrock75]

Not much known about teal since they are so small that backpack transmitters have not historically worked. If I remember right backpacks have now gotten small enough to where some recent studies are happening on GWT. I will be fascinated by any results. It is both amazing and maddening that they can be all over an area one day and it seems like all blinds within 10 miles do well and then they can disappear completely.

[Ducaholic]

GWT days are hard to explain as you alluded to here one day and gone the next. What I've noticed over time is when you shoot in to large groups of them early it's likely that it's going to be a good day for bigger ducks later that morning. Not always but often enough that it's proven itself over time.

[Rick]

It might not be so much a problem of them stopping short as it seemed like plenty of them continue to head to points much further south as always. It looks more like a local problem than a general problem of them not heading south.

When I asked Southwest Louisiana based waterfowl biologist, Paul Link, for his thoughts on what's happening here, he didn't say "Fat cats' corn soup up North". He said, "Look around."

Loss of meaningful habitat and crazy pressure aren't the whole issue, of course, but little doubt much of it.

[Ducaholic]

One thing is certain we have lost about 2 million birds in SW La. annually. I find it hard to believe we have suddenly lost that much habitat over the last 7-8 years which is when the real decline began to take place.

I'd also add its way more than just corn. Moist Soil Managment has gone through the roof in the last 20 or so years.

It's would also help if the PPR were producing ducks like it used to. I view it as multiple factors but clearly, they don't have to come to La. if they don't want to.

[Rick]

One thing is certain we have lost about 2 million birds in SW La. annually. I find it hard to believe we have suddenly lost that much habitat over the last 7-8 years which is when the real decline began to take place.

Fwiw, at the time Paul noted our habitat changes a few years back, it was framed as "just the 10(?) years (he'd) been down here".

Was just responding to Spinner's region specific observation. Y'all carry on carrying on.

[Ducaholic]

While I respect Paul's thoughts, I seriously doubt he has the full purview to what's really on the ground in all of SW La. I'd trust your judgement on that more than I would his own in terms of a comparative analysis over time.

Do you really think we can't winter another million ducks in SW La. if they were to choose to come here?

I can tell you this in NE La. we don't have near the flooded ag fields that we once did while in Central La. where I hunt, we have the same if not more habitat on the ground although a lot of it is now in CRP of WRP.

[DComeaux]

It might not be so much a problem of them stopping short as it seemed like plenty of them continue to head to points much further south as always. It looks more like a local problem than a general problem of them not heading south.

When I asked Southwest Louisiana based waterfowl biologist, Paul Link, for his thoughts on what's happening here, he didn't say "Fat cats' corn soup up North". He said, "Look around."

Loss of meaningful habitat and crazy pressure aren't the whole issue, of course, but little doubt much of it.

I've thought about this issue a lot trying to keep an open mind, and the habitat and pressure theory bothers me. Sure, the marsh has changed a bit south of Highway 82, but the fresh marsh north, not so much. As for pressure down there, it's been the same for generations. Those long-established, well-managed places are now experiencing what many have for quite a few years now. We've /I've witnessed shifts east and west with bird distribution along the coast from year to year, with progressions to either side for a short while, but not this total lack of waterfowl in all areas.
Knowing how easy feed attracts and holds waterfowl, it's not hard to believe that enhanced waterfowl areas in the northern part of the flyway coupled with low numbers of breeding waterfowl along with low hatch numbers due to degraded nesting habitat combine to make our situation the way it is. I would love to see what a population explosion would do to the "short-stopping" theory.
We have no good data on the number of waterfowl in the Mississippi flyway that overfly Louisiana and winter in South America and Mexico. Using the refuge as a gage, I know the build-up numbers, disappearance, and replenishment in the early season with frontal passage is not what it used to be.

With that said, I'm going to ride it out this year, hopefully storm free and see how it goes down there. I currently don't have a warm and fuzzy feeling with our "waterfowl management professionals".

[Ducaholic]

DC the habitat to our south has not improved either. I'd venture to say the over flight is the same that it's ever been and likely less. A duck is only going to do what a duck has to do to survive.

I'll ask you the same thing I asked Rick. Do you really think we can't winter another million birds if they chose to come to SW La.?

[Ducaholic]

For proper perspective here are the numbers:

From 1977-2003 Long Term Average for Coastal La. was 2.2 million Birds in November.
In 2024 Costal La. Numbers in November was 510,000 birds which is the lowest on record with a 10-year average of 1.2 million birds.

[Rick]

Sure, the marsh has changed a bit south of Highway 82, but the fresh marsh north, not so much. As for pressure down there, it's been the same for generations.

Surely you know the fresh marsh hunting was fed, for the most part, by birds using rice and ag land "weed" seed that's no longer remotely as available as it once was. Same was so for most all but dogris when I was hunting Pecan Island's brackish marsh.

[Darren]

.......and rice aint remotely what it used to be as far as available grain in the field for the winter, and now (too deep) crawfish water on rice stubble, + more sugarcane, etc. The holding power via sheer quality acreage that allowed for ample rest from non-disturbance is just a fraction of what it was down on our end of the flyway.

[DComeaux]

Yeah, It's over.