Preseason '25-'26

[Darren]

Sure beats record HIGHS for today, Nov 11th:

580934237_1389638915853961_965314731523993930_n.jpg

Weekend forecast still bleak, no wind. Last year we had a low pressure bothering our opener weekend, this year we get a high. It'll be stale, but at least not flood tides.

Lot of smoke growing for Thanksgiving week cold though, fun to watch.

[Ducaholic]

Bring it on!

[Darren]

Bring it on!

The laughably far out forecast for Turkey Day morning:

Screenshot 2025-11-11 143659.jpg

Screenshot 2025-11-11 143759.jpg

By that timing, Tuesday and Wednesday would be THE days that week, and Monday nice south winds ahead of the front; I don't hunt T-giving morning. Got a long while to watch, I'm mostly trying to scheme what weekdays to attempt next week for now.

[DComeaux]

If we don't get a better early push this year with the weather patterns we're having, I'll remain silent when it comes to waterfowl migration going forward. Too many years of regurgitating the same thing over and over.

[Darren]

If we don't get a better early push this year with the weather patterns we're having, I'll remain silent when it comes to waterfowl migration going forward. Too many years of regurgitating the same thing over and over.

Sadly, I'd have to join you.

[Darren]

Update from local outfitter out and about in Delacroix this morning: "low water, thousands of green wings"



It's also of note that Habitat Flats is killing green (headed) ducks and less grays, etc., always a sign of migration progressing each year when the early season bragging pics transition from grays to green.

[Darren]

If we don't get a better early push this year with the weather patterns we're having, I'll remain silent when it comes to waterfowl migration going forward. Too many years of regurgitating the same thing over and over.

Sadly, I'd have to join you.

Thankfully all that early cold I’ve been tracking appears to have genuinely paid off:

The 2025 November survey estimate of 1,238,000 ducks in Louisiana’s coastal region and Little River basin (Table 1) is 143% higher than last November’s record low estimate of 510,000. This year’s estimate is 40% higher than the most recent 5-year average (885,000), and 2% higher than the most recent 10-year average (1.2 million)

Still a bit below the long term average but no doubt a significant spike. I scouted some public stuff yesterday and it was pretty bleak other than a nice raft of dosgris/scaup out on Lake Borgne, maybe a couple thousand of them. Thankfully the story was much more positive at the lease where Will did our scouting for the crew, good few birds in or around most of our ponds. We’re all headed that way this morning, splitting into two groups, no wind.

[Ducaholic]

Darren...What are the models showing for Thanksgiving and beyond?

[Darren]

Lot of model agreement for significant front late next week, be it Thurs (GFS) or Fri/Sat (Euro).

Of note, after cool down, looks like a warm up returns to milder conditions, something I think we ultimately see more of this winter due to La Nina influence.

[Ducaholic]

Lot of model agreement for significant front late next week, be it Thurs (GFS) or Fri/Sat (Euro).

Of note, after cool down, looks like a warm up returns to milder conditions, something I think we ultimately see more of this winter due to La Nina influence.

Thought so...Thanks

[Ericdc]

I'd rather rainy weather than these hot dry 70-80 degree mid November days.

That Thanksgiving front should be good.


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[Ducaholic]

I'd rather rainy weather than these hot dry 70-80 degree mid November days.

That Thanksgiving front should be good.


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Without a doubt I'd rather it be rainy. Wednesday actually looks like the day the front will hit here in Central La. with winds forecasted out of the north at 10-15.

[Ericdc]

Yes I've got Wednesday circled.

Looking at Wednesday and Friday for sure. Got family stuff Thursday and Saturday.


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[Darren]

We'll look forward to a decent front on Thanksgiving this week to come.

For week after Thanksgiving, though, seeing consistency starting to build for some serious cold on the flyway.

Thurs Dec 4th morning

Screenshot 2025-11-22 150253.jpg

[Rick]

Tease.

[Darren]

Tease.

Forecast still holding

Now Tues morning December 2 AND later in the week

Screenshot 2025-11-26 143608.jpg

Near and long forecast looks intriguing for sure, def not looking stale nor warm.

[Duck Engr]

Good! I did not see many ducks on my trip last weekend. Couldn’t believe it honestly. Need a shakeup.

On a related note, I appreciate your weather musings on here. You keep me more informed than most meteorologists.

[Darren]

Good! I did not see many ducks on my trip last weekend. Couldn’t believe it honestly. Need a shakeup.

On a related note, I appreciate your weather musings on here. You keep me more informed than most meteorologists.

Glad to hear it, I’ve learned a lot along the way and enjoy the prognostications, particularly when they’re of my own guessing and the pro’s eventually vouch for them. I can be wrong sometimes, just like a real live weatherman!

[Darren]

Tease.

Forecast still holding

Now Tues morning December 2 AND later in the week

Screenshot 2025-11-26 143608.jpg

Near and long forecast looks intriguing for sure, def not looking stale nor warm.

This forecast is aging really well, very cold temps in heart of the MS Flyway this week, plus MO and IL snow.

Tuesday morning temps

Tuesda141211.jpg

Thurs morning temps

Screenshot 2025-12-01 141126.jpg

[Ericdc]

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[DComeaux]

They're not coming no matter the weather.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1216467597211368




This is the video from which the clip above was taken.

[Rick]

SOBs must have even figured out how to hold our geese.

[Ericdc]

We had a ton of geese around today. Snows and specks.

They still migrate. To us at least

3 blue wings today was a weird addition to the bag.


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[DComeaux]

SOBs must have even figured out how to hold our geese.

Same as they did with Canada's in an attempt to protect the farmers' crops from damage during late spring and summer continuing into the fall at harvest. The only difference between now and then is that this practice is more widespread, utilized extensively by the private sector, by those with large sums of disposable cash.


This is the Missouri conservation area waterfowl counts as of November 17th.
https://mdc12.mdc.mo.gov/Applications/PublicReportViewer/ReportView/ReportViewer.aspx?report=400

[DComeaux]

A post made this morning on another forum.

"With the weather we have up north if you guys aren't seeing ducks now, they ain't coming. Not going to say it was a bang up year duck number wise but we had our share. Most of WI and MN is covered in snow and locking up tight. We haven't been above freezing in over a week and it looks worse through the end of our season this Sunday. Talking 10 degrees for a high on Thursday. Launches on all but the most major river and great lakes areas a frozen in. Will I kill ducks this weekend? Yep but it's going to be a lot of work for the last few stragglers."

[Darren]

A post made this morning on another forum.

"With the weather we have up north if you guys aren't seeing ducks now, they ain't coming. Not going to say it was a bang up year duck number wise but we had our share. Most of WI and MN is covered in snow and locking up tight. We haven't been above freezing in over a week and it looks worse through the end of our season this Sunday. Talking 10 degrees for a high on Thursday. Launches on all but the most major river and great lakes areas a frozen in. Will I kill ducks this weekend? Yep but it's going to be a lot of work for the last few stragglers."

Yea I haven't seen prolonged cold of this scale, plus snow mind you, on models (and actual observations) across the flyway in recent memory, and dang sure not this early in our season. Will be interesting to see if it moves the needle for our December survey. No doubt, though, there will be plenty birds of all species hanging out on frozen corn fields simply walking the ice munching at the ears.