Preseason '25-'26

[DComeaux]

Those mallards go to the same place every year.

[Darren]

Can't be mad about that for this calendar date:

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Perty danged cold across the MS flyway

[DComeaux]

Running this and the GFS models, it looks the north will be locked solid all the way down into Missouri, with Arkansas looking up for a bit as well. This winters weather patterns will be a tell all when it comes to the migration for Louisiana. Some areas to the north haven't been above freezing for some time now. Ice fishing has began is some areas and we're at the beginning of December.

Screenshot (7).png

Look at todays upper level flow. Perfect tailwind for migration.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=ir

[Darren]

Agreed, it's about as ideal as could be for us at this point in season, diminishing returns post-Christmas or so, Jan 1 for sure.

Big north winds down the flyway this Friday

[Ducaholic]

Lots of cold coming through late this weekend but beyond that it appears that the winter will take some time off

[Ericdc]

Lots of cold coming through late this weekend but beyond that it appears that the winter will take some time off

Dry cold too... I'm not sure if that does as good as the weather we had last couple weeks with the cold and wet?

Wish there was snow with this one. Will lock up some stuff for sure but as you said, gonna be a big warmup through Christmas it appears. I really hope we get some weather in the week or 2 after Christmas.


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[Darren]

Looking more and more likely:

- Hot/stale 2nd split opener weekend after bitter cold earlier in the week, essentially identical to opening day scenario
- Hot Christmas

[Darren]

But in the mean time.....

Screenshot 2025-12-11 141515.jpg

[DComeaux]

Lots of cold coming through late this weekend but beyond that it appears that the winter will take some time off

Good. It'll be comfortable for opening weekend.

[Darren]

arcticn.jpg

[Darren]

Looking more and more likely:

- Hot/stale 2nd split opener weekend after bitter cold earlier in the week, essentially identical to opening day scenario

Of note, GFS continues to say that, but the last two long range Euro runs show a cold front ripping in on Friday bringing cold for the weekend.

Something worth watching if it that continues to signal.....

[Darren]

Now multiple models on board and its on the forecast, friday looks to be the front day, but winds turning east then south over the weekend.......then gets stale for a solid week (or more).

[Ducaholic]

Now multiple models on board and its on the forecast, friday looks to be the front day, but winds turning east then south over the weekend.......then gets stale for a solid week (or more).

Pas Bon

[Darren]

Pas bon indeed, likely fog on the coast

[Rick]

Pas bon indeed, likely fog on the coast

On a new moon.

[Darren]

Gonna be dark en route!

[Darren]

As the flooded corn debate rages on, some shared graphics food-for-thought:

stats2_n.jpg

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Graphics seem to point out that while the mallard story is clear, the other-than-mallards discussion is quite different.

[DComeaux]

I would like to see the HIP survey broken down by species and separated by the state or states the individual hunted. If I live in Louisiana but killed 100 birds in Kansas, do these birds get added to the Louisiana total? Does one need to fill out a HIP survey for each out of state license purchase as well?

[Ericdc]

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[DComeaux]

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Thanks. I just wonder if those numbers are separated by each hunter by state, accurately. I know it's all they have but it damn sure isn't accurate.

[Ericdc]

As the flooded corn debate rages on, some shared graphics food-for-thought:

stats2_n.jpg

stats.jpg

Graphics seem to point out that while the mallard story is clear, the other-than-mallards discussion is quite different.

Our non mallard harvest has fluctuated with BPOP at my place for as long as I've kept records. (Since 2010)


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[Darren]

Our non mallard harvest has fluctuated with BPOP at my place for as long as I've kept records. (Since 2010)
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Wouldn't doubt that, and makes total sense.

As for the HIP: what exactly does that achieve in estimating actual harvest with any remote sense of accuracy? The range caps out pretty small, and reportedly MOST fall within those small ranges, but then there's plenty other hunts, myself and many of you included, that harvest way beyond the cap of the HIP harvest range.

[Ericdc]

I think a portion are selected for more detailed season journal and wing surveys


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[Duck Engr]

Our non mallard harvest has fluctuated with BPOP at my place for as long as I've kept records. (Since 2010)
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Wouldn't doubt that, and makes total sense.

As for the HIP: what exactly does that achieve in estimating actual harvest with any remote sense of accuracy? The range caps out pretty small, and reportedly MOST fall within those small ranges, but then there's plenty other hunts, myself and many of you included, that harvest way beyond the cap of the HIP harvest range.

I misunderstood this for a long time but heard it explained on a podcast last year. Those questions are to put you into a category to select full surveys from. They have it calculated to pull so many hunters from the “didn’t kill much” pile, the “killed a few” pile, and the “killed a bunch” pile. So your answer to that question isn’t used to calculate the annual harvest directly. Survey responses are used to calculate harvest.

[Darren]

Got it, thanks !

Somehow it's happening for sure and LA still shows significant harvest, just less comprised of mallards.

[Ericdc]

Got it, thanks !

Somehow it's happening for sure and LA still shows significant harvest, just less comprised of mallards.

I believe a lot of folks are still killing ducks but you don't hear about it, whether on private or public ground.


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[Darren]

Got it, thanks !

Somehow it's happening for sure and LA still shows significant harvest, just less comprised of mallards.

I believe a lot of folks are still killing ducks but you don't hear about it, whether on private or public ground.
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Some kats in SE La are killin this year, know the La Sportsman guys (lower Terrebonne or Lafourche parish salt marsh) have been slaying for 3-4 years now......that after a few years of it being really bad.

We've had a tremendous season, and my lease neighbor (with the videos I've posted) has about limited every hunt, hunting to my north and southeast. The log does say that our best days this season have been when its warm and plenty water, southerly winds.

What next season holds, who knows.

Also for our discussion:

Dale Bordelon yesterday "The last good flight day I saw was in 1996".......but we had really really strong survey counts in the 2010's, so again, its all your perspective. Your neighbor may be stacking, but if you aren't seeing birds, its the worst, and "no ducks come to La."

Haiden Richard (Gueydan guide) on FB posted video yesterday: "There's a lot of snow geese, AAA LOOOTTT of snow geese."
Would Rick say the same? Probably not, he's got a longer history and different perspective having seen heyday of hunting blues in the area.

Quick chat with a contact of mine at a major duck hunting brand that has their own TV show who was out filming last week in MO or ARK I think when I needed him on product support:

Darren: Well, hows it going up there, doing any good?
Friend: IT'S TOUGH!!

[Ericdc]

Got it, thanks !

Somehow it's happening for sure and LA still shows significant harvest, just less comprised of mallards.

I believe a lot of folks are still killing ducks but you don't hear about it, whether on private or public ground.
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Some kats in SE La are killin this year, know the La Sportsman guys (lower Terrebonne or Lafourche parish salt marsh) have been slaying for 3-4 years now......that after a few years of it being really bad.

We've had a tremendous season, and my lease neighbor (with the videos I've posted) has about limited every hunt, hunting to my north and southeast. The log does say that our best days this season have been when its warm and plenty water, southerly winds.

What next season holds, who knows.

I'm very happy for you guys. I don't know why my brother's lease in little chenier has struggled so much. They have good SAV and water levels, but birds just never got in there. They usually hold blue winged teal all season, but not this year.

I'm hunting tomorrow, Saturday, and Monday.

Tomorrow should be a beautiful sunny string south wind day followed by a few days of colder north winds. No rain to shuffle anything around, so we'll see. Taking advantage of holiday weekend and going to hunt hard.


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[DComeaux]

IMO, wherever on the coast our meager migration ends up they'll do okay. There will be pockets here and there that shift occasionally providing a good hunt or two for some. The long standing clubs and other maintained marshes will always get there share until we reach a critical stage in our migration numbers. The teal are taking a pounding, that with the blue wing population numbers being low.
It's going to be interesting to see how things progress over the next few years. Something I may be watching from the sideline.