El Nino

[don novicki]

is supposedly coming this year starting very soon. This means a drier and warmer winter up North here and now the zone I hunt will close Dec 2. What do you guys think, warmer, colder, more rain. I'm hoping for cold and snow early and heavy.

[Ricky Spanish]

Starting to really get skeptical of weather forecasting especially past the 24-36 hour forecast.
Long range depends on zelenski putin and Xi.
Oh my.
There is such a thing as weather warfare or there wouldn't be a UN treaty covering it.

So how do you catch them doing it?

Oh that's easy they manipulated Chinese weather for the Olympics. Now add it all up and you get...
No way anyone is manipulating our weather it's not even possible and this year the long range forecasting will be spot on.
Musings from one of the people that's glued to the weather channel during duck season.

[Duck Engr]

Yeah I don’t trust weather forecasters any farther than I can throw them. Tough gig forecasting the weather but I’ve been burned too many times. Zero faith in long range forecasts.

[SpinnerMan]

Yeah I don’t trust weather forecasters any farther than I can throw them. Tough gig forecasting the weather but I’ve been burned too many times. Zero faith in long range forecasts.

I will agree and disagree.

Agree on the long range forecasts being worthless. As far as short range (days), they are not too bad. It's just most people read them wrong. Weather is probabilistic and not deterministic. It can tell you how many 1's are on a set of dice, but can't tell you what the next roll will be. Rain is the big one. If planning a trip and it says 100% chance of rain or 30% chance of rain, what do you do?

Today we have an 85% chance of rain, but what I look at is how much rain?

Rain 0.27 in

At a quarter inch of rain, pretty good chance you are going to get wet.

If it was a 100% chance of rain and 0.01 in, you probably wouldn't even notice that it did rain even though it's a near certainty.

I say near as when you look at the actual results compared to the prediction. At the low end the under predict the probability. When they say 0%, it's more like 5%. At the high end, they overpredict. So when they say 100% it's more like 95%. But between 20% and 80%, they are pretty much spot on about the odds.

Regardless it is still a probability. However, the expected precipitation totals tell you much more than the probability. If it says an inch, you are almost sure you are going to get a lot of freaking rain even if they over estimated the amount. If it is hundredths of an inch, even if it comes in far above expected, you still are unlikely to have an amount you care about.

Look at the total precipitation expected first and then the hours or precipitation. They are calling for 1 hour today and 0.27". That means if you get rain, it's going to be a strong line of showers that probably passes through quickly. If 3 or 4 hours, less intense but spread out over time. The more precipitation they are estimating. The more certain you will get an amount of rain that matters. More reliable than the probability in making decisions.

And then look at the time lapse radar for the very short term. Right now those storms are forming as expected. Some look pretty nasty. Just got the severe thunderstorm warning text. They are going to get here around 6PM. Right when I was planning to meet someone outside to do some inspections at our club. That might not happen. I have to go there anyways, so we'll just see. Otherwise I would reschedule.

People hate things that are probabilistic. Even with 95% probability with a 0.5 inch expected, there's a 1 out of 20 probably more like 1 out 15 that things will just fall apart and no rain will happen or go around you which is especially true with summer thunderstorms.

As far as winter weather

I'm hoping for cold and snow early and heavy.

I'm 100% with Don. Nice weather up until the day I shoot that giant buck or Thanksgiving, whichever comes first. Probably Thanksgiving Then cold as a mother with at least 6" of snow, but not more than 12" and measured in feet to the north of me.

[Ricky Spanish]

Wind direction and speed is often off and we argue about what app is best.
I'm pretty much always wishing for a good stiff south wind and clouds from unlimited height down to about 500 feet or less but I'm not picky.

[Ricky Spanish]

Wind direction and speed is often off and we argue about what app is best.
I'm pretty much always wishing for a good stiff south wind and clouds from unlimited height down to about 500 feet or less but I'm not picky.