Looming Crisis?????

[don novicki]

We see very very few birds anymore through here up by Erie, Pa. Used to be good hunting but not anymore. Now if we get flight birds anymore we are lucky. Even Presque Isle, our once good diver hunting spot, isn't that great anymore and the last 2 years have been really bad. Tough to get guys interested in empty skies day after day and there isn't really an easy answer for that one. We could always count on Canada shooting for the last 30 years but even that is going down the crapper. The Pa. duck hunter will be a thing of the past before too long............

[Rick]

Larry occasionally posts our Louisiana numbers, and they've generally been well up (around the 100,000 mark) from, say, a decade prior.

Got off my arse, checked our Louisiana hunter numbers and found that while they were up over that mark with 103,600 in 2012, they've gone down the tube with the hunting to just 47,000 in 2015 - all of whom must be bidding for space in our area. Flat remarkable how blind prices have spiraled upward during that same period.

I got the above number from the USFWS, but our state waterfowl study leader posted the following with regard to them today:

The fact is that we do NOT have a good estimate of the number of waterfowl hunters in Louisiana. Why? At least 2 significant reasons:
1) Lifetime, Senior, and Sportsman Paradise license holders do not have to purchase a "duck" license, so we don't know if those hunters are waterfowl hunters or not.
2) Every migratory bird hunter is required to register with HIP, but many of the retailers do not ask the HIP registration questions (they just answer "NO" to the "did you hunt" questions for you). So we can't tell a dove from a woodcock from a duck hunter. Further, the HIP coding doesn't allow us to distinguish between a hunter that did not hunt ducks and one who hunted ducks but killed zero.

What we do know is that during the same time period (the last 3 years) that the HIP estimates show Louisiana has lost nearly 60,000 active duck hunters, LDWF "duck" license sales have been flat. There is absolutely, positively no way that LA has lost 60,000 or even 20,000 duck hunters during that time, and because the total harvest estimates are simply (the average kill per hunter)*(number of hunters), our harvest data estimates are equally bad. LDWF conducts it's own harvest survey every year; it's sent to a random sample of 6% of all licensed hunters and includes all game species. For decades, that survey mirrored the federal harvest estimates ....... in fact, the LDWF survey estimated higher duck kill than the feds (probably because of a lower response rate and thus a higher bias toward more dedicated, successful hunters). But in the last 3 years, the LDWF survey shows a slightly declining number of active hunters (84,000 to 81,000) with a flat harvest, where the feds have shown a decline from 103,000 to 45,000. And we are not alone. AR, MS, and AL have similar discrepancies in hunter estimates from the feds and license/stamp sales.

In 2015, to generate a sampling frame for the Louisiana Waterfowl Hunter Opinion Survey, we looked at the entire HIP database. We pulled everyone who bought a "duck" license (resident duck, LA Native duck, Military duck, Student duck, etc.). Then we looked at the HIP registration questions and pulled everyone that reported killing at least 1 duck or goose. We ended up with 95,000 known waterfowl hunters, and we know we didn't get them all. Lifetime, Senior, or Sportsman Paradise hunters who were not asked the HIP registration questions were missed, as were those who hunted ducks but did not report killing any. So I KNOW that we have WAY more hunters than either the Delta article or NOLA.com article portrays, and I KNOW we have not lost substantial numbers of active waterfowl hunters. But I don't have a solid estimate of either.

Those discrepancies between state and federal hunter/harvest estimates are the main reason the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies has commissioned a HIP Working Group (on which I represent the MS Flyway) to assess the problems and recommend changes to improve the harvest estimates. Harvest data are being used more and more in our harvest management strategies that determine hunting regulations, and the current estimates are unacceptable. I have used the harvest data extensively for zones/splits recommendations and season-date discussions within our state, but since 2013, when the federal estimates went so far askew from LDWF license sales and harvest data, the federal data are no longer reliable. And THAT is an issue, because LDWF harvest data are not species, date, or geography specific.

[aunt betty]

You could save really much money on your lease if you had free power.

[aunt betty]

Ok now what you didn't see are the "hot" wires coming up thru the hole in the countertop.

[Deltaman]

Larry occasionally posts our Louisiana numbers, and they've generally been well up (around the 100,000 mark) from, say, a decade prior.

Got off my arse, checked our Louisiana hunter numbers and found that while they were up over that mark with 103,600 in 2012, they've gone down the tube with the hunting to just 47,000 in 2015 - all of whom must be bidding for space in our area. Flat remarkable how blind prices have spiraled upward during that same period.

I got the above number from the USFWS, but our state waterfowl study leader posted the following with regard to them today:

The fact is that we do NOT have a good estimate of the number of waterfowl hunters in Louisiana. Why? At least 2 significant reasons:
1) Lifetime, Senior, and Sportsman Paradise license holders do not have to purchase a "duck" license, so we don't know if those hunters are waterfowl hunters or not.
2) Every migratory bird hunter is required to register with HIP, but many of the retailers do not ask the HIP registration questions (they just answer "NO" to the "did you hunt" questions for you). So we can't tell a dove from a woodcock from a duck hunter. Further, the HIP coding doesn't allow us to distinguish between a hunter that did not hunt ducks and one who hunted ducks but killed zero.

What we do know is that during the same time period (the last 3 years) that the HIP estimates show Louisiana has lost nearly 60,000 active duck hunters, LDWF "duck" license sales have been flat. There is absolutely, positively no way that LA has lost 60,000 or even 20,000 duck hunters during that time, and because the total harvest estimates are simply (the average kill per hunter)*(number of hunters), our harvest data estimates are equally bad. LDWF conducts it's own harvest survey every year; it's sent to a random sample of 6% of all licensed hunters and includes all game species. For decades, that survey mirrored the federal harvest estimates ....... in fact, the LDWF survey estimated higher duck kill than the feds (probably because of a lower response rate and thus a higher bias toward more dedicated, successful hunters). But in the last 3 years, the LDWF survey shows a slightly declining number of active hunters (84,000 to 81,000) with a flat harvest, where the feds have shown a decline from 103,000 to 45,000. And we are not alone. AR, MS, and AL have similar discrepancies in hunter estimates from the feds and license/stamp sales.

In 2015, to generate a sampling frame for the Louisiana Waterfowl Hunter Opinion Survey, we looked at the entire HIP database. We pulled everyone who bought a "duck" license (resident duck, LA Native duck, Military duck, Student duck, etc.). Then we looked at the HIP registration questions and pulled everyone that reported killing at least 1 duck or goose. We ended up with 95,000 known waterfowl hunters, and we know we didn't get them all. Lifetime, Senior, or Sportsman Paradise hunters who were not asked the HIP registration questions were missed, as were those who hunted ducks but did not report killing any. So I KNOW that we have WAY more hunters than either the Delta article or NOLA.com article portrays, and I KNOW we have not lost substantial numbers of active waterfowl hunters. But I don't have a solid estimate of either.

Those discrepancies between state and federal hunter/harvest estimates are the main reason the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies has commissioned a HIP Working Group (on which I represent the MS Flyway) to assess the problems and recommend changes to improve the harvest estimates. Harvest data are being used more and more in our harvest management strategies that determine hunting regulations, and the current estimates are unacceptable. I have used the harvest data extensively for zones/splits recommendations and season-date discussions within our state, but since 2013, when the federal estimates went so far askew from LDWF license sales and harvest data, the federal data are no longer reliable. And THAT is an issue, because LDWF harvest data are not species, date, or geography specific.

Good info Rick, and explains very plausibly, where the fucked up numbers that are being used are coming from. We have a very similar issue with Red Snapper in the Gulf............

[Rick]

I probably shouldn't be quoting Larry without his permission or context, so here's the link: http://www.refugeforums.com/refuge/threads/declining-number-of-waterfowlers.1020271/page-2 and his contribution to the conversation continues on the following page.

We're blessed to have him.

[Rick]

I knew the two fellows in that job before him pretty well, and both were much more politically cautious. That Larry hasn't been shut down by the various pressures upon him is a marvel.

[aunt betty]

Sigh...you done went and got me lookin at the fuge again.
The post that stood out so far is the one where it says hunter numbers are down because everyone (EVERYONE) is saying they did not hunt ducks last year in order to avoid the "twenty questions" of HIP.
I do the same thing because of where I buy my licence. Rural King farm store usually has a line of people behind me literally moaning when they figure out "Oh God he's buying a hunting license". Champaign, Illinois is not Arkansas that's for sure.

Still reading the fuge thread and will pop back in whenever something strikes me.
No wonder the numbers don't match what I've been experiencing.

[aunt betty]

Another factor is the fact that the gubment thinks they need to control everything including how many people go hunting. It is a cash cow so "the more the merrier". The articles in magazine are generally a bunch of BS disguised as news. (sponsored content) Rarely do they contain real facts. Their stats are made-up BS.
For example: Once I read an article on hunting deer in Fur-Fish-Game magazine (one of my favorites). The article was so biased. Went on and on about skunk scent pads and it was basically a very long "ad" trying to sell the skunk juice and pads for your boots.

Same goes for duck hunting mags. It's always optimistic like listening to a baseball manager interview three days before baseball season starts. "It's going to be great, awesome, most spectacular season ever...go buy your tickets before it is too late". Have been reading the Illinois state waterfowl outlook for 40 years and they never have said "this year's gonna suck so stay home" even though 8 out of 10 seasons up here suck. You have to be extremely lucky and be in the right place, right time, right day or you ain;t killin chit.

Having said all that..."this coming season is going to be the BEST EVER!!!
Go buy your license and stamps today!

Lease prices: Leased a world-class quality field near Cash, Arkansas In the middle of a vast complex called "The Crane Farm Hunt Club". The lease was $4k and was a good spot but got over-hunted BAD by too many guys because out of 6 fields we leased only one had water.(that sucked bad)
We could have sub-leased that field that year for $10k. People were dogging us about it too.
The next season I didn't even want to talk about leases. Got fucked really hard on that deal. I paid half the cash and got to hunt that field a couple times after it was worthless. It cost me $2k to shoot a hen mallard and a snow goose.
Smilin' Mallard Hunt Club. Epic failure. Another field...dude shot a hole in the pit and made it miserable. Things just kept getting worse and worse until I said eff it and went public and killed a whole lot of ducks.

[SpinnerMan]

The last 5 years I have had to say to the clerk at the store---shouldn't you ask me about the HIP information---most of the time I get the deer in the headlights look.

I get my hunting license for IL online in the spring when my fishing license expires. Do the combo thing and get all the license, except for my archery deer tags which I go to the Gander Mountain near my house and pick up my federal duck stamp at the same time. I don't trust having them mailed and it is literally the closest store to my house. It is hit or miss on the competence of the clerk. I walked up last time this very young American Hispanic looking women running the register. I'm thinking, probably not going to be the most knowledge. Was I wrong. Wiz bang, pulls up my info, prints my tags. She says I see you don't have your archery turkey tag, do you want that? Most people that archery hunt get one in Illinois. I would except nobody has seen a turkey where I archery hunt in probably 100 years. If I remember right she even asked about HIP because apparently the HIP didn't show on her screen. Damn. Her was a smart young lady that will not be running a register for the rest of her life.

Which reminds me, time to fork over money to the state of Illinois before I return so I can go fishing when I get back.

[Rick]

yes,another thing that makes me think this decline is not really the story,I have passed by the same little stores year after year after year and there seem to be more hunters now or at least the same stopping early in the am and post hunt wise. Trucks all pulling atv's,side by sides,etc....or trucks having the kennel in the back for the dog

go to Jonesboro,egypt,cash---same thing

Even if the bottom falls out entirely, I suspect (and Lougon's no doubt hopes) we'll be among the last well populated regions to notice it.

[DComeaux]

yes,another thing that makes me think this decline is not really the story,I have passed by the same little stores year after year after year and there seem to be more hunters now or at least the same stopping early in the am and post hunt wise. Trucks all pulling atv's,side by sides,etc....or trucks having the kennel in the back for the dog

go to Jonesboro,egypt,cash---same thing

Even if the bottom falls out entirely, I suspect (and Lougon's no doubt hopes) we'll be among the last well populated regions to notice it.

That's the truth. Some mornings we were lucky to find a place to park, and I miss my jalapeño and cheese corn dog with chocolate milk in the mornings. We'd also stop there when we'd get out of the blind,as did many others.

[Rick]

...and I miss my jalapeño and cheese corn dog with chocolate milk in the mornings.

Hard to imagine a worse sounding combination.

Was by your old blind a few days ago, and it's holding water nicely. Cuts were down to puddles, but the blind was full. Jarren's old south cut was still holding water, but nothing but mottleds left on it.

[aunt betty]

yes,another thing that makes me think this decline is not really the story,I have passed by the same little stores year after year after year and there seem to be more hunters now or at least the same stopping early in the am and post hunt wise. Trucks all pulling atv's,side by sides,etc....or trucks having the kennel in the back for the dog

go to Jonesboro,egypt,cash---same thing

Another thing I've noticed is campers parked about anywhere that there is a power hook-up.
How come I ain't never met you? We apparently run around in the same areas.

Is Lynn on the list of places you go to?

[DComeaux]

...and I miss my jalapeño and cheese corn dog with chocolate milk in the mornings.

Hard to imagine a worse sounding combination.

Was by your old blind a few days ago, and it's holding water nicely. Cuts were down to puddles, but the blind was full. Jarren's old south cut was still holding water, but nothing but mottleds left on it.

Where's the steel covers/lid? ........ Users and shooters.

[Rick]

Decoys are still out and covers are on the levee.

[DComeaux]

Why don't you go ahead and take care of the for em.

[Rick]

Not my yob, mon.

[don novicki]

Headline for the August edition of Wildfowl magazine..........".Duck's, and lot's of em, headed your way". I have that on good authority from DU.

[Darren]

In my areas of SE La, it's perceived to be as "bad", i.e. popular, as ever with regard to hunter numbers. Through my periphery, it seems like I'm hearing of more and more guys who are new to it, all wanting a taste of the craze. It's the hip thing to do.....faster pace than deer hunting, get to paint your face (and of course the dog's too), spend money on all sorts of fun toys like mud boats.

Unbelievable pressure for openers on public waters, everyone under the sun and moon running around in ever-more-powerful mud boats. Perfect; so you'll all be going even faster in the predawn darkness. Dangerous on public lands with the racing to honey holes, but also bad in private areas with so much traffic in the dark.