Re: Post Season Things

[DComeaux]

We, OK, JJ, saw two teal on our marsh gator roundup this morning. I missed 'em, but he's a reliable witness.

As most years, you'll have yours when the rice field guns go off. Every flooded field will be disturbed, morning and evening.

[Rick]

As most years, you'll have yours when the rice field guns go off. Every flooded field will be disturbed, morning and evening.

That's the plan/hope, and fingers and toes will be crossed. But both of the two guys in my blind before me teal hunt the rice in September. So, I guess, "We'll see..."

But the bottom line here is that I wish I'd picked up the pair, just because it tickles me to see them.

[DComeaux]

Blake and I made a run to the blind yesterday morning and jumped a hand full of teal that I could make out in the large number of other birds that took flight all the way to the blind. The growth on all land areas is lush and tall. Our island has good growth with some sea myrtle (Baccharis halimifolia) taking root around our blind. We've used those cut from other areas nearby over the last couple of years and I assume seeding took place. They have a pretty stout root system. The water level is low but not perfect. I found out the water level we have now will be the lowest we get due to the crabbers fishing the surrounding marshes. I would like to see at least a 6" drop from where it is now.

It took longer to run to the spot then it did to catch our limit. These are a better size then we've caught over the last two years. I wish I had the time this week for a couple of trips while there still running.

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[Duck Engr]

Woooowee what a cooler full! I’m jealous. I think you won teal season already.

[Rick]

Sweet catch, and mangliers taking the island may help hold it together and aid blind concealment but could end up tough to manage. Not nearly the fan of them as I am of what's in the box.

[DComeaux]

Sweet catch, and mangliers taking the island may help hold it together and aid blind concealment but could end up tough to manage. Not nearly the fan of them as I am of what's in the box.

That was exactly my thoughts. Hard to manage but will hopefully hold together what we have left. All other types of marsh grass around the blind are thick and healthy. I'm praying we have no saltwater intrusion for the remainder of the season.

[Darren]

Perty perty shrimp!

I'm actually hoping to do some transplanting of those very bushes to a blind or two of ours as they're common in the area and we routinely brush with them. I don't care for the fuzzies they're known for in fall, but they're sturdy and dense for brushing blinds. Downside is they do eventually lose all their leaves after being cut so takes some replenishing.

But if they're growing there already......then more apt to keep their leaves!

[DComeaux]

Perty perty shrimp!

I'm actually hoping to do some transplanting of those very bushes to a blind or two of ours as they're common in the area and we routinely brush with them. I don't care for the fuzzies they're known for in fall, but they're sturdy and dense for brushing blinds. Downside is they do eventually lose all their leaves after being cut so takes some replenishing.

But if they're growing there already......then more apt to keep their leaves!

The fuzzies are a pain. Up the nostrils they go.

[Deltaman]

Sweet shrimp perk Dave!!!!!

[DComeaux]

I emailed DU about just that discrepancy, Dave. They produced the following podcast:

https://youtu.be/X22XQPZbHRI?si=OrIWVpKIL7O_vOc6

Start about the 55 minute mark.

Evidently info gets fed into the computer model each year and it gets reformulated based on habitat, predicted harvest, and surveyed harvest. Now whether or not you think the data is accurate, that’s a fair critique. Best they have currently though.

I thought I'd move this out of Darren's log. I just feel that these models lag too far behind the actual. The Pintal experiment will be interesting to watch. The take on those will rise, no doubt. Some areas will get their per man limit on every hunt.

[Darren]

Now having watched it, sure enough the framework adapts nearly each year, and in some cases drastically. Notably, it changes for the more conservative, and the less, just the same. Sometimes the liberal areas are huge, sometimes much smaller, etc.

[Ducaholic]

Of late the liberal options have grown and now we count US and Canadian Ponds where as in the past it was only Canadian Ponds. As late as 2022 the AHM would have dictated conservative seasons based on 2024 and 2025 numbers. It would now take significant drops in pond and mallards numbers to bring conservative seasons into the fold. I'm not advocating either way but I do find it interesting.

[Darren]

How could we have previously not accounted for US ponds with so much of the PPR here in the States?

[Ducaholic]

How could we have previously not accounted for US ponds with so much of the PPR here in the States?

Good question but that is my understanding based on information shared.

[Darren]

How could we have previously not accounted for US ponds with so much of the PPR here in the States?

Good question but that is my understanding based on information shared.

As of the 2015 survey report, it was 1974 when they started counting US ponds in addition to canadian ponds.

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[Ducaholic]

See footnote C for AHM. Counting and using them for AHM appears to be different.

[Ducaholic]

After 2022 AHM added the US ponds to the matrix as I understand it.

[Duck Engr]

After 2022 AHM added the US ponds to the matrix as I understand it.

Yep they’ve counted US ponds for many years but only recently added them to the matrix for whatever reason.

[Darren]

After 2022 AHM added the US ponds to the matrix as I understand it.

Yep they’ve counted US ponds for many years but only recently added them to the matrix for whatever reason.

Gotcha, "Big Duck" made that happen.

[Ducaholic]

Ha...It will be interesting to gauge what the bounce back is once water returns to the PPR.

[DComeaux]

Forbes Biological Station

Quick update from the survey last Thursday, September 11. The Illinois river continues to drop but the freshly exposed mudflats won't have time to grow new food before the end of the growing season. While this year's trend in blue-winged teal migration seems to match with previous years, abundance is quite lower. Blue-winged teal (14,595) and total duck (20,360) abundance were below their respective LTAs for the Illinois River this week (-32%, and -41% respectively). Blue wing abundance was also low along the MS River, down -33% and -43% from LTA for blue-winged teal (4,715) and total ducks (6,160), respectively.
Here's hoping these trends aren't indicative of the waterfowl migration that is to come later this fall! We hope to get in the air tomorrow for this week's waterfowl survey.

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[Darren]

Given the weather so far, how could it be anything BUT below average numbers? That will be a-changin', hang tight a bit.

[DComeaux]

Given the weather so far, how could it be anything BUT below average numbers? That will be a-changin', hang tight a bit.

I believe it's not weather related but has more to do with a major decline in the overall waterfowl population. It looks like the BW will take another beating this year with already low population numbers. We're going to pound waterfowl into extinction.

[Darren]

Given the weather so far, how could it be anything BUT below average numbers? That will be a-changin', hang tight a bit.

I believe it's not weather related but has more to do with a major decline in the overall waterfowl population. It looks like the BW will take another beating this year with already low population numbers. We're going to pound waterfowl into extinction.

You realize that you're claiming the govt-published waterfowl survey is inaccurate and/or falsified in some way with such an assertion, as the data does not support that claim. If anything some species we routinely target here, grays, wigeon, spoons (maybe just me lol), and pintails are on the upswing from last year, with most well above reported long term averages.

So is that what you're saying here, the survey and/or its methodology is flawed such that it kicks out paper ducks? If so, you might be right.

Big Duck in action!

[Duck Engr]

For the population that makes it to Louisiana, the data agrees with Dave. There’s a graph out there somewhere that’s pretty damning. Starting in 2014, Louisiana harvest decoupled from the bpop.

[DComeaux]

Given the weather so far, how could it be anything BUT below average numbers? That will be a-changin', hang tight a bit.

I believe it's not weather related but has more to do with a major decline in the overall waterfowl population. It looks like the BW will take another beating this year with already low population numbers. We're going to pound waterfowl into extinction.

You realize that you're claiming the govt-published waterfowl survey is inaccurate and/or falsified in some way with such an assertion, as the data does not support that claim. If anything some species we routinely target here, grays, wigeon, spoons (maybe just me lol), and pintails are on the upswing from last year, with most well above reported long term averages.

So is that what you're saying here, the survey and/or its methodology is flawed such that it kicks out paper ducks? If so, you might be right.

Big Duck in action!

I haven't seen the number of ducks we're missing here in Louisiana showing up anywhere else in the US as high excess during the winter surveys. I think the surveys work great when there's an abundance of waterfowl, but when the goal post is moved for one excuse or another to adjust for the lower numbers and pond counts, I see this an issue.
Maybe we've depleted our migrating portion of the waterfowl population. Who knows, but I do know that those that profit from waterfowl hunting, or those that have millions invested in their waterfowl properties don't want to see a reduction in bag limits or season lengths.

[Darren]

but I do know that those that profit from waterfowl hunting, or those that have millions invested in their waterfowl properties don't want to see a reduction in bag limits or season lengths.

No doubt. It's certainly fact and represents a scary-large "bubble," that's become a machine too big to fail.

My perception as a non-owner of a business related to this realm is that I see companies doubling (or tripling!) down on a trend that's not in their favor. Less ducks each time? Print more shirts, more bags, more guns, more ammo choices. Would love to know what the Dive Bomb company has sunk in capex the last 700 days or so between gear development, property acquisition and enhancement, etc. etc. etc. that's all over YouTube. They may be capitalizing for the moment, but maaannnnn if it all crashes........ Perhaps they're simply gambling that the breeding grounds will once again turn wet and crank out swarms on the significantly reduced amount of habitat left for birds to work with.

Re: duck numbers

I'm not talking less ducks in La, Dave's shot was taken at the overall ducks counted flyway wide, as the piece discussed was in another state who is showing low numbers, and thus seemingly bringing into question whether the numbers reported by USFWS even exist. Maybe they don't, though I don't have a sound way of making my own case for that.

The % that makes it to La is a whole different discussion for another day.

[Darren]

Apparently good bunches of pintails showing in some corner of SW La rice the last few days per vids online, first vids of non-teal I've seen.

Tony Vandemore at Habitat Flats showing lots of ducks.....mostly blue wings.

[DComeaux]

but I do know that those that profit from waterfowl hunting, or those that have millions invested in their waterfowl properties don't want to see a reduction in bag limits or season lengths.

No doubt. It's certainly fact and represents a scary-large "bubble," that's become a machine too big to fail.

My perception as a non-owner of a business related to this realm is that I see companies doubling (or tripling!) down on a trend that's not in their favor. Less ducks each time? Print more shirts, more bags, more guns, more ammo choices. Would love to know what the Dive Bomb company has sunk in capex the last 700 days or so between gear development, property acquisition and enhancement, etc. etc. etc. that's all over YouTube. They may be capitalizing for the moment, but maaannnnn if it all crashes........ Perhaps they're simply gambling that the breeding grounds will once again turn wet and crank out swarms on the significantly reduced amount of habitat left for birds to work with.

Re: duck numbers

I'm not talking less ducks in La, Dave's shot was taken at the overall ducks counted flyway wide, as the piece discussed was in another state who is showing low numbers, and thus seemingly bringing into question whether the numbers reported by USFWS even exist. Maybe they don't, though I don't have a sound way of making my own case for that.

The % that makes it to La is a whole different discussion for another day.

Like farming, investing heavily in a natural resource is extremely risky. Unlike farming, the government doesn't offer waterfowl farming subsidies. Again, I hated to see the BPOP numbers being lowered making it harder to see restricted seasons. Maybe this is their form of subsidy until the crash.

[DComeaux]

Apparently good bunches of pintails showing in some corner of SW La rice the last few days per vids online, first vids of non-teal I've seen.

Tony Vandemore at Habitat Flats showing lots of ducks.....mostly blue wings.

I've seen those videos. With Tony's set up and location he'll load up and keep many.